Seven foreign nationals, including five French citizens, were abducted from the Nigerien uranium-mining town of Arlit early Sept. 16, AFP reported. A spokeswoman for French nuclear group Areva said two of its employees at the Arlit mining facility, a husband and wife, were kidnapped. French newspaper Le Monde reported the abduction of five people — three French citizens, one from Togo and one from Madagascar — working for the Vinci engineering group subsidiary of Satom, a major French engineering company with operations in Africa. According to Le Monde, the abductees had been traveling without a security escort between 2 a.m. and 5 a.m. local time. There currently is no verifiable information on the perpetrators of these kidnappings, nor have any ransom demands yet been made, though Le Monde quoted an unnamed Nigerien security official who said they likely were the work of al Qaeda's local node, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), or Tuareg rebels. Nigerien government spokesman Laouali Dan Dah told AFP that the individuals were kidnapped by seven to 30 armed people in two pickup trucks. Dan Dah said the abductors spoke Arabic, and some of them spoke Tamashek, the language of Tuaregs living in the region. He said the abductors headed in the direction of the town of Inabangaret near the Nigerien border with Algeria and Mali, and that they had also kidnapped a Nigerien "logistician," releasing him approximately 32 km (20 miles) from Arlit. Nigerien security forces are currently questioning the man. Determining the responsible group is crucial in predicting regional and international reactions to the kidnapping as well as the eventual fates of the hostages. The French have been tolerating — and paying off — Tuareg rebels for some time, and the rebels have a history of releasing French and foreign hostages without ransom. However, if AQIM is in fact behind the abductions, the French are likely to retaliate. Paris, especially recently, has expressed a resolve to confront AQIM, and AQIM has tended to either accept a sizable ransom or summarily execute hostages.

Probable Culprits

AQIM has a robust presence in the part of the Sahel that encompasses northern Niger, Mali and Mauritania. However, its previous operations in Niger have been limited, with one high-profile kidnapping of two Canadian diplomats in December 2008 in Niamey and two on security forces in December 2009 near Dianbourey, Tillaberi region, and Telemses, Tahoua region. The locations of these attacks, mostly in Niger's southwest, indicate that Arlit is well-within AQIM's operational ambit. Moreover, Algerian security efforts have put AQIM on the defensive, forcing it to attack softer targets closer to its bases in northern Algeria and straining its financial resources and weapons stockpiles. Thus, the group has increased its kidnapping-for-ransom schemes in the Sahel. AQIM is well-aware that some Western governments will pay hefty ransoms for the release of their citizens — Algerian presidential adviser Rezag Bara told Algerian newspaper El Khabar on Sept. 16 that AQIM has collected $50 million in five years by abducting Europeans in the region. The French are not known to pay ransoms, as demonstrated in the high-profile kidnapping in Mali of elderly French aid worker Michel Germaneau, who was killed following a botched joint French-Mauritanian special forces rescue attempt. However, AQIM may believe Areva and Satom have kidnapping and ransom insurance and that they will pay for the abductees' release. Reports that the hostages are on their way to the southern borders of Algeria and Mali, a known area for AQIM operations, and the release of a non-Western hostage — possibly indicative of the premium they put on Western hostages — could be evidence of AQIM's involvement. However, if AQIM was responsible for these kidnappings it would represent a rare foray into the Arlit-Akouta uranium-mining region for the group, where in the past the Tuareg rebels have done most of the kidnapping. The local Tuareg rebel group, the Niger Justice Movement (MNJ), has been quite active in the region since 2007, and the Sept. 16 kidnappings certainly fit with the group's past behavior. The group abducted four French citizens in Arlit in June 2008, who were subsequently released to the Red Cross four days later without ransom. The previous July, MNJ rebels abducted an executive with Chinese uranium company China Nuclear Engineering and Construction Corporation in the Ingall region, about 100 km south of Agadez, where the Arlit deposit is located, releasing him after less than a week as well. While the nomadic Tuareg do not share an ideological affinity with AQIM and are largely fighting for localized goals and environmental grievances, Tuareg rebel groups in the Sahel have been known to trade and sell high-value Western hostages to AQIM, which may have been a financial incentive for the MNJ to kidnap the foreigners.

Possible French Reaction

French interests in northern Africa — as well as French domestic politics — will largely determine Paris' response to the kidnappings. Security in Niger is one of France's core national interests. The Maghreb country provides France with 40 percent of its uranium needs, which is crucial for a country that draws 80 percent of its energy from nuclear power. French state-owned Areva, which has operated in Nigeria for 40 years and has considerable influence with Niemey, operates two major uranium mines, located in the Arlit and Akouta deposits, which combined to produce 3,032 metric tons of uranium in 2008, roughly 7 percent of world output. Areva is also set to expand its uranium production in Niger when the Imouraren deposit comes online some time in 2013-14, which is expected to produce 5,000 metric tons of uranium per year once it is fully operational. This would significantly increase France's reliance on Niger for uranium, which means the country will become even more important for Paris in the future. The kidnappings come a month and a half after AQIM claimed responsibility for Germaneau's death. Following the incident, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon announced that France was at war with AQIM, and AQIM threatened France and its North African interests with further attacks. Paris later tempered the declaration by detailing the nature of its increase in operations, saying it would provide more logistical and equipment support to the Maghreb countries to deal with the AQIM threat. But these kidnappings would be a significant move by a group that France has singled out as a serious threat to its regional interests and thus could prove to be a catalyst for France to become more directly involved. Fundamentally, greater AQIM activity would be a problem considering regional security forces already are stretched. The reach of Niger's government forces into the Agadez region is tenuous at best. Mines are defended by a combination of Nigerien and private security forces. The Nigerien military is also relatively weak and focused mostly on Niamey, some 1,000 km from Areva's operations. Paris also has political reasons to become more aggressive with AQIM. France is largely overshadowed in the European Union leadership by Germany, but an evolution of expeditionary military ability could show EU states that France provides the "muscle" behind German economic might. Also, French President Nicolas Sarkozy's popularity is at an all-time low, and he has been using distractions — such as a ban on Muslim face veils and deporting illegal Roma residents — to defray criticism. A show of force in the Maghreb could become part of that strategy. It is not a strategy without risk, however, as a botched rescue attempt similar to the one that preceded Germaneau's death could attract further criticism — especially if AQIM is involved and these hostages meet a similar fate.