Tajik authorities arrested a man Aug. 24 in the southern part of the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, near a Russian military base. The 26-year-old possessed a bag which contained a grenade, TNT and what media reports called a cell phone detonator. Authorities said the materials in the bag had been assembled into an improvised explosive device (IED). The arrest comes a day after 25 individuals convicted on terrorism charges escaped from a prison in Dushanbe. The timing of the arrest led to some speculation that the two incidents were related — that the man arrested Aug. 24 was one of the escapees — but that is not likely. It would be difficult for someone to identify a target, assemble materials, construct an IED and deploy it in a 24-hour period — much less while being chased by the police. Tajik authorities confirmed later Aug. 24 that all of the escapees were still at large, thus ruling out the possibility that the suspect was one of the escapees. Local police have said that some of the escapees could have fled to Tajikistan's Rasht district. However, the possible targeting of a Russian base in the Aug. 24 incident is interesting in light of the alleged activity for which the escapees were arrested. Police have not specified why the 25 were arrested except that they were fomenting social unrest through terrorism (they were accused of belonging to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which operates in the Fergana Valley area of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) and engaging in drug trafficking. The escapees — most of whom are Tajiks, but some are Afghans, Uzbeks and Russian citizens from Dagestan — appear to have been arrested in a Tajik counterterrorism operation that media reports indicate took place in eastern Tajikistan on Aug. 5, 2009. The arrests occurred within a week of two attacks that appeared to target a security summit which Tajikistan hosted and which the presidents of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Russia attended. In the first attack, explosive devices detonated near the presidential palace and the airport July 27, just before the summit began. The second attack targeted a police car parked near the summit July 31. Neither attack caused serious damage (although one policeman was injured in the July 31 attack) but attacks occurring so close to foreign state leaders would be taken very seriously. These attacks could have instigated the operation that led to the arrests Aug. 5. Russian authorities would have also taken a serious interest in this group, since it appeared to be targeting the Russian president and involved Russian citizens from one of its most violent north Caucasus republics, Dagestan. The escape of 25 convicted terrorists in Tajikistan has attracted much attention from local and foreign media outlets. Although the escapees could well possess the ability to carry out attacks, they are not the only ones in Tajikistan with that skill set, and they likely will not be able to carry out attacks anytime soon. Tajikistan has mobilized its internal and border police forces to search for these escapees, and the Russians have lent security personnel to the effort. Russia has also added 8,000 troops to its bases in Tajikistan since last year, most of whom were transferred from the Caucasus and have experience in pursuing militants and will contribute a great deal to Tajikistan's ability to capture the escapees. Since a recently escaped convict's first priority is personal safety, the escapees likely will not get involved in an attack anytime soon unless it involves someone who poses a direct threat to their freedom. Even if they do manage to evade security forces, the winter snows in Tajikistan and Central Asia in general typically slow militant activity, meaning it could be as late as spring 2011 before these specific individuals could pose a significant security threat.