The public sector workers component of the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) announced an indefinite strike Aug. 18 as several unions under the COSATU umbrella fight for a pay raise to their liking. This is the first public sector strike of this magnitude in South Africa since the summer of 2007, and it represents the first serious challenge from a core government ally that South African President Jacob Zuma has faced since he took power in April 2009. Zuma rose to power with support from COSATU, but geopolitical constraints have prevented him from giving the unions more power. Zuma is working to balance COSATU members' demands with South Africa's political and economic imperatives. COSATU has more than 2 million members, including about 1.3 million public sector workers. With representatives employed in hospitals, schools and public transportation across the country, a prolonged strike could significantly disrupt both the South African economy and daily life in the country. Various components of the umbrella labor organization had threatened for months leading up to the World Cup that they would strike if COSATU members' wages were not sufficiently increased. While some of these groups reached accommodations before the games, most were talked out of striking due to a collective understanding that the tournament was not to be disrupted. The World Cup is over now, and COSATU members are trying to get what they feel is rightfully theirs. Their demands are slightly less than what other unions had rallied for in previous months (an 8.6 percent raise as compared to some unions that demanded increases as high as 15 percent), so they feel that what they want is not unreasonable. And, for comparison's sake, during the 2007 strike, public sector unions pushed for a 12 percent raise. The government's "final" offer, issued Aug. 19, is for a raise of 7 percent plus a 700-rand-per-month ($96) housing allowance. Pretoria has also given striking workers 21 days to negotiate, after which the new wage rates will simply be implemented unilaterally. That no one is threatening to fire any union members at this stage — rather, they are being guaranteed a raise no matter what, even if it is not an amount to their liking — shows that Pretoria is prepared to bend to an extent and that a compromise likely is around the corner. The 2007 public sector strike lasted for 29 days and occurred during a time in which public opposition to then-President Thabo Mbeki was reaching peak levels. One of Mbeki's fiercest opponents was COSATU, whose members were upset that their demands and interests were essentially ignored by a president who was perceived as pro-business. It was this umbrella organization that helped propel Zuma to the party presidency that fall at the ruling African National Congress (ANC) leadership convention in Polokwane. (Zuma then was able to lift COSATU into a position of greater power, as both rode a wave of popular support borne out of widespread distaste for Mbeki.) When Zuma was elected as South African president in April 2009, his relationship to the unions led many to believe that he would give the other two members of what is known as the "Triple Alliance" in South African politics — COSATU and the South African Communist Party (SACP) — a large say in government affairs. In turn, COSATU and the SACP expected that their support of Zuma would translate into their having the ability to help shape government decision making. Such a scenario would inevitably lead to a fundamental leftward shift in South Africa's economic policies. Zuma did grant a few Cabinet positions to COSATU and SACP officials but made no substantial break with the policies espoused by Mbeki and Nelson Mandela before him. In short, though South Africa's current Cabinet does contain leftist elements, the country has retained a pro-business identity with Zuma at the helm. The reason the changes COSATU and SACP expected did not occur — as STRATFOR noted would be the case — is that geopolitical constraints require South Africa to maintain a steady supply of low-cost labor. This is especially important as the country emerges from the post-apartheid area, when reconciliation among South Africa's ethnic groups and between blacks and whites was the main focus. Now, South Africa is seeking to regain its former dominance in the southern African cone, and if it is going to do this, it needs to build upon its economic foundation — one rooted in the sale of minerals dug from the ground. This requires low input costs (such as labor and electricity), of course, if margins are going to be substantial. As South Africa has sought to measure itself against the four BRIC (Brazil-Russia-India-China) countries in recent years, this has become even more important. Of course, there are also larger political imperatives that guide Zuma's actions. Maintaining the stability of the ANC alliance is critical if the only party that has governed the country since the end of apartheid is going to be able to continue strengthening South Africa instead of moving it backward or collapsing into internal factional fighting, as was the norm during Mbeki's final days. Zuma, therefore, is in a difficult situation, as he must weigh his own political imperative of maintaining a working relationship with COSATU unions against accepting the larger forces that constrain his list of choices as head of state. He is scheduled to go to China on Aug. 24 for an official visit and will want to have the issue resolved before he leaves. Once he has finished the trip, Zuma will have visited all four BRIC nations. Since South Africa's stated goal is becoming the fifth member of this club, Zuma will certainly be reminded of what it will take for South Africa's economy to grow to these countries' level.