Three players in particular are affected by the flotilla belonging to a Turkish religious non-governmental organization steaming toward the Gaza Strip: Israel, Turkey, and the United States. There are no good outcomes to the situation for Israel and no bad outcomes for Turkey. Meanwhile, the United States would prefer if the whole situation just went away. (click here to enlarge image) Turkey is trying to re-emerge as a great power after an interregnum of nearly a century. It has yet to find its bearings, however, and has made miscalculations. The most glaring of these occurred when Russia blocked Ankara's moves in the Caucasus by preventing a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and upsetting Turkey's ties to its longtime ally, Azerbaijan. This has prompted Turkey to focus on the Middle East, where there are plenty of opportunities for its efforts to enhance its international stature. The Gaza convoy provides such an opportunity, regardless of the outcome. If Israel permits the convoy to enter Gaza, Turkey will have stuck it to a country widely loathed in the Arab and Muslim world, in stark contrast to the relatively impotent Arab gestures against Israel. If Israel does not allow the convoy to enter Gaza, Turkey will still get points for trying. Ankara's ties to the group that organized the convoy remain unclear, meaning Turkey need not respond officially if Israel takes aggressive action against the ships. For its part, Israel does not appear to have arrived at an internal consensus on just how isolated it is in the world, nor does it realize the extent with which U.S. and Israeli interests have fallen out of alignment. Preventing the humanitarian convoy from landing will likely increase that isolation and widen the U.S.-Israeli divide, as Palestinian civilian suffering is a cause celebre in the Muslim world, Europe and even in some parts of the United States. Permitting the convoy to land will only inspire further support for the Palestinians, undermining Israel's efforts to use its military and economic advantage to reshape its neighborhood to its liking. For its part, the United States does not need any further distractions. Its proverbial plate is full trying to disengage from Iraq and win the war in Afghanistan, in addition to trying to free up the surplus capacity to deal with a resurging Russia. Washington accordingly will not look kindly on a new crisis brought about by Israeli intransigence on the convoy issue. One outcome of U.S. engagement in the Middle East and South Asia since the 9/11 attacks is a divergence in U.S. and Israeli interests. In order to extricate itself from Iraq and effectively deal with Afghanistan, the United States must negotiate with Iran — something Israel sees as undermining its national security. In addition to the variance in the U.S. and Israeli calculus on Iran, the two allies more recently ran into disagreements on the Palestinian issue given the Obama administration's need to placate the Arab/Muslim world as part of its strategy in the war against jihadism. The United States does not want to be forced to take sides when it comes to Turkey and Israel, as both are allies. But if it comes to down it, it will choose Ankara because the United States is dependent on Turkey in relation to a host of foreign policy matters, complicating U.S.-Israeli relations. In fact, Washington would prefer to remain out of this matter altogether, but depending how ugly things get, it may find itself forced into the fray. While the current situation ultimately might pass without much fanfare, the complex regional situation, Turkish objectives and American priorities mean it could wind up being a major event.