Ousted Kyrgyz President Kurmanbak Bakiyev now appears to have fled the capital of Bishkek, and ongoing unrest begins to show signs of potential Russian involvement. About 10 miles north of the outskirts of town lays Manas International Airport and the U.S. transit center that operates from the airfield. Though its fate has often been uncertain, the recent unrest — combined with what seems to be a popular perception in the country of dissatisfaction with the American presence and remarks from U.S. President Barack Obama supportive of Bakiyev — means the American presence at Manas could find itself in its most tenuous position. The U.S. Transit Center at Manas is a key hub for the American mission in Afghanistan. Some 2,000 U.S., allied and contracted personnel support the movement of materiel, personnel and aerial refueling operations for Afghanistan. Manas also is an important trans-shipment point: In 2008, 170,000 passengers en route to or from Afghanistan passed through Manas. That same year, 5,000 short tons of cargo were loaded for final delivery into Afghanistan. And, perhaps most important of all, Manas is home to the primary aerial refueling operation for Afghanistan, generating nearly 3,300 aerial refueling tanker sorties to refuel some 11,400 allied aircraft in 2008 alone. With additional U.S. and allied troops and supplies surging into Afghanistan, these numbers — as well as Manas' importance — have grown. Even brief interruptions — especially of aerial refueling sorties — will be felt in Afghanistan: Flights out of Manas are a daily affair. But there are stockpiles of supplies in Afghanistan for just this sort of interruption. Initial reports about the status of military flights were conflicting. It now appears they may have been suspended briefly, and have resumed, at least partially. But the real question is about the longer-term fate of the transit center. (click here to enlarge image) The U.S. mission in Afghanistan will not succeed or fail based on the status of Manas, though the loss would be costly and extremely annoying for the Pentagon. Contingency plans are almost certainly well established and up-to-date. But the United States has paid good money to continue to operate from Manas because there are few good alternatives in Central Asia. In 2005, the U.S. was kicked out of Karshi-Khanabad (known as K2) air base in Uzbekistan and is unlikely to be allowed back, since Tashkent is likely to perceive recent developments in Bishkek as a consequence of defying Moscow. In reality, Moscow exercises decisive influence in the region, even in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which aspire to a higher degree of independence. This does not mean Manas will close even if domestic opinion is against the base. First, the U.S. pays the government of Kyrgyzstan $60 million annually for use of the base. This is no small sum for a country with gross domestic product in 2009 of just under $4.7 billion. (Another indication of Russia's decisive influence is the $2 billion it offered to loan Bishkek the day the last threat of eviction was announced.) This does not include local contracts, employment and other monies that flow into the local economy — and Bishkek's economic and geopolitical woes are dire. More importantly, Moscow has been fairly cooperative with Washington on the issue of Afghan logistics. While it has leveraged that cooperation for its own benefit, at the end of the day, the Russia has thus far not minded allowing the Americans to expand their dependence on the Kremlin's good graces. And the Kremlin also benefits from the U.S. mission in Afghanistan for the moment both in terms of American distraction and Americans holding the line — and attracting all the attention — of Islamist extremism on that stretch of its border. However, the first Russian statement about the transit center itself since the unrest in Bishkek — by an unnamed senior Russian official in Prague — has not been promising, and an official in Kyrgyzstan's self-proclaimed new government said on April 8 that there is a "high probability" that the U.S. lease on the transit center will be shortened. It is too soon to tell how things will shake out in Bishkek and what it will mean for Manas. The airport itself has an established perimeter and is surrounded in many directions by farmland, so it has some insulation from the unrest, which has not yet been directed at the U.S. presence. But the fate of the U.S. Transit Center at Manas is tied to the fate of Bishkek and the good will of Moscow.