THE CHINA INTERNET INFORMATION CENTER, an online outlet for news and information run by the Chinese central government, published a commentary on Thursday discussing China's right to build overseas bases to support naval operations and protect Chinese interests abroad. The article, written by Fudan University's Institute of International Studies executive dean Shen Dingli, is a response to debates inside China and abroad over whether Beijing should establish naval bases, supply depots and related facilities overseas to support China's naval participation in anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia, and ultimately defend China's broader maritime interests. The article comes a day after Captain Chris Chambers, director of operations for the U.S.-led Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), which jointly heads the Shared Awareness and Deconfliction (SHADE) working group that helps coordinate multinational anti-piracy operations off of the Somali coast, told a conference in Singapore that China would soon be enhancing its participation in SHADE, and would take on the rotating leadership role in the working group in a few months. Currently SHADE leadership rotates between the CMF and European Union maritime forces and coordinates operations among these and other independent anti-piracy forces in the area. China will be the first nation participating in the anti-piracy operations to take a leadership role in SHADE, and will expand its naval contribution above its current three-ship task force and take responsibility for patrolling an area with more active piracy. The expansion of China's contributions and coordinating role are currently awaiting final approval in Beijing, and the extended mission is raising the discussion of a resupply base in the Indian Ocean basin to ease logistics for maintaining China's fleet. China has kept an anti-piracy task force in the area since December 2008 and has not indicated it is leaving anytime soon. This makes a more local supply depot something that would ease the logistical burden of maintaining the small fleet so far from mainland China. The idea of Chinese bases abroad, particularly in the Indian Ocean, immediately raises concerns that China is growing more active and aggressive in its naval activities. Beijing has used the anti-piracy operations to demonstrate its growing participation in international operations and develop capabilities to deploy Chinese naval forces far from home for an extended period of time. A natural outgrowth of this is the discussion of establishing overseas naval bases, or at least arranging docking and resupply agreements at other countries' ports to sustain Chinese maritime operations. But the idea of Chinese bases abroad, particularly in the Indian Ocean, immediately raises concerns in India and elsewhere that China is growing more active and aggressive in its naval activities. In some sense, these perceptions are accurate, at least so far as China's planned evolution of capabilities are concerned. China's economic growth has led to a major shift in the country's resource needs. China now imports large amounts of raw materials, including oil and minerals, from the Middle East and Africa. As China grows more dependent upon the steady flow of these supplies, it has also grown concerned about the security of its supply lines. China has long been a land power and its forays into international waters have been few and far between, despite a series of explorations along the Indian and African coasts in the 15th century. Redesigning and training its navy to take a more active role in maritime security is now a major focus of its recent military reforms and a key area is the ability to protect one of its main supply arteries through the Indian Ocean. Beijing has been cautious in this task as it faces opposition from India and the United States, both of which have a much stronger and more secure presence in the region, and both of which have little interest in seeing China significantly expand its naval capabilities. The anti-piracy operations have given Beijing the perfect opportunity to test and refine its capabilities in a non-threatening manner, and talk of resupply bases — and thus a more permanent Chinese naval presence — is something Beijing is considering carefully but seriously. China is years, if not decades, away from having the ability to sustain a true blue water naval capability and even further from being able to truly challenge U.S. maritime dominance, but each step Beijing takes gives it the skills and experience necessary to make the next move forward. Taking a leadership role in SHADE also gives China a valuable opportunity to observe and learn the protocols and operations of other nations' fleets — lessons it can apply to its own operations. Beijing may be far from floating a blue water navy in any sustainable way, but China has recognized the vulnerability of its dependence on overseas resources and is actively working to improve its ability to protect its own supply lines. But when these lines match those of others with equal or even more severe dependencies, like Japan, or pass through competitor's areas of strategic interest, like India or the United States, even a defensive intent can be perceived as potentially aggressive preparation or action. It is this sort of perception of capabilities that can quickly escalate into competition or an arms race and keep tensions high. It also creates room for misunderstandings and accidents — as we have already seen in China's more active operations in the South China Sea, and in the U.S. moves to temper Beijing's advances.
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