Editor's Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus. Ukraine is preparing for its long-awaited presidential election Jan. 17. The election will bring about the end of President Viktor Yushchenko's time in office and his pro-Western movement, which took power during the 2004 Orange Revolution. STRATFOR has identified the top candidates in the election as having close ties with Russia — a fact that gives Moscow the ability to pull Ukraine back into its fold no matter who wins. Though it is clear a large shift will occur in Ukraine after the elections, Ukrainian politics and elections are never easy, smooth or peaceful. STRATFOR is watching for political complications and protests in the streets before the election and will continue keeping an eye on developments after the election. Political machinations are a given in Ukraine, as elections at any level are chaotic. There are three main potential moves that STRATFOR believes could alter the election's outcome:

• Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko is currently polling second behind former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich. She already has said that if Yanukovich wins the election in the first round, she might brand the election fraudulent (as she did as part of the Orange Revolution in 2004), which could spark a drawn-out court battle over new elections. If this occurs, watch what court Timoshenko chooses to hear her complaint, since the Central Election Committee is filled with Yanukovich supporters and the Constitutional and Supreme Courts are led by Yushchenko supporters.
• On Timoshenko's heels in the polls is former Economy Minister Sergei Tigipko, part of leading candidate Yanukovich's pro-Russian Party of Regions. STRATFOR sources have indicated that if Tigipko surpasses Timoshenko and comes in second, he could throw his votes to Yanukovich to secure a party victory.
• STRATFOR sources have indicated that Yushchenko, Yanukovich and Russia have been working surreptitiously on a deal that would keep the outgoing pro-Western president in the government in some role to mollify Ukraine's pro-Western regions. STRATFOR is now hearing that Yushchenko is asking the pro-Western regions to refrain from voting so that Timoshenko, who stands to gain the most votes in those regions, does not benefit — thus ensuring a Yanukovich win and a job for Yushchenko after the election.

On the ground, protests already are being planned across Ukraine. These protests could lead to violence (though large-scale violence does not seem likely), despite government plans to increase security. In Kiev, pro- and anti-Russian groups are planning to march outside the Russian Embassy. Pro- and anti-Western groups plan to gather outside the EU Mission and the U.S. Embassy. Protests in the most popular areas of the city, like Independence Square, are banned from Jan. 9 through Feb.5. STRATFOR is watching for an uptick in violence at the protests and to see if either the pro-Western or pro-Russian demonstrators begin shipping people in from outside Kiev to stage demonstrations. It will also be important to note if any Russian youth groups, like the Nashi, appear in Ukraine since they tend to raise tensions and increase the probability of violence. STRATFOR sources in Kiev say Ukraine's Interior Ministry troops are on standby should they be needed to keep the peace in the city. Ukraine's western regions, like Lviv near the Polish border, will be watched most carefully since they are the most heavily influenced by the West and were a major center of the protests in the Orange Revolution. Anti-Russian violence and local authorities' reactions should be watched very closely. Overall, the election in Ukraine is expected to be noisy and complicated. Though there may be hiccups in the electoral process and security situations on the ground, the main outcome of the election is expected to still be in Moscow's favor, no matter the problems along the way.