Prices in the eurozone, the 16-country area of the European Union using the euro as its currency, fell by 0.7 percent year-on-year and 0.7 percent month-on-month in July. The main areas registering an annual decline are housing (1.8 percent); communications (0.8 percent) and clothing (0.3 percent). Declines from the previous month were recorded across a range of products, with clothing prices dropping 9.8 percent in July from June. The figures for July indicate a second consecutive month of falling prices in the eurozone, but the numbers still show that energy prices are leading the decline. In looking at the July year-on-year figures, it must be taken into account that in July 2008, oil prices briefly touched the ceiling of $147 per barrel. When energy is excluded, the eurozone actually experienced inflation of 1 percent in annual terms. The large decline in clothing prices from June to July can be accounted for by the start of June-July sales across most of Europe. These sales are standard fare in Europe, with retailers and high-priced boutiques looking to unload their summer collections before the arrival of the fall and winter lines. A similar monthly decline was recorded in the figures for July 2008, with prices falling 9.3 percent from the month before. Industry contacts have told STRATFOR that further price declines not associated with summer sales — albeit not as dramatic — may occur in the fall due to pressures from the crisis. The second sector experiencing a substantial price decrease was housing. This was also expected, considering that the financial crisis did not hit until after July 2008, so lending was still relatively robust and available and thus spurred demand. In fact, at this point in 2008, housing prices had increased by 6.7 percent from the previous year. While most price drops can therefore be explained by seasonal logic or by energy price declines, the monthly figures indicating price reduction across most products are concerning. In particular, while the numbers may not be certain evidence of deflation, they are low enough to give pause. Deflation is a worrying trend because it could lead to a deflationary spiral caused by a widespread belief that the economy will not improve and that prices will drop further. This causes consumers to delay their purchases, which leads businesses to lower prices further, thus cutting production and staff. As more people become unemployed, the general malaise increases, only reinforcing the psychological cycle of pessimism. However, other recent figures from the eurozone point to a return in consumer demand — a fact that should greatly alleviate deflationary pressure. STRATFOR will keep watching the situation in Europe, however, as a combination of banking problems and increasing unemployment could quickly change the mood in Europe and precipitate price declines that have nothing to do with energy.