The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan made "important and significant progress" in talks on the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, Matthew Bryza, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state and co-chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) Minsk Group of international mediators, said May 7 after a meeting in Prague. The fact that a group of Russian, French and American mediators have succeeded in bringing the two Caucasus rivals to the table is indeed progress, but there is a lot more going on behind the scenes. STRATFOR has been closely tracking Turkey’s attempt, under Russian supervision, to restore diplomatic relations with Armenia and related negotiations over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Azerbaijan, historically an ally of Turkey and a foe to Armenia, has insisted that any Turkish-Armenian rapprochement must include a resolution on Nagorno-Karabakh, territory that Azerbaijan lost to Armenia in a 1992-1993 war. To get its point across, Azerbaijan has threatened to send its energy supply eastward toward Russia instead of westward through Turkey to reach the European market. Eager to take advantage of Yerevan’s dependency on Russia and Baku’s growing vulnerability, Russia proclaimed itself the grand mediator of the dispute and scheduled a May 7 meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders at the Russian embassy in Prague. Russia invited Turkey, the United States and Europe to send representatives, but only the Turks and the Americans accepted. Armenia, however, dropped out of the talks at the last minute to try to make the point that Baku, not Yerevan, would be the one to compromise in these negotiations. But there appears to have been a backup plan to keep the fire lit under the talks. When it became clear that the meeting at the Russian Embassy was not going to happen, a new meeting was quickly organized for the same day at the U.S. Embassy in Prague. This time, however, the guest list included France — and excluded Turkey — by coming under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group of international mediators, a body dominated by its Russian, French and U.S. co-chairs. This rearrangement of mediators gave Armenia the boost of confidence it needed to come back to the table. Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian was already wary that the Turks would not be able to sacrifice their Turkic brothers in Azerbaijan and risk their energy future for the sake of striking a deal with Armenia. France, however, has a highly influential Armenian lobby and has long assumed a leadership role among the Europeans in trying to work out a compromise in the Caucasus over Nagorno-Karabakh. French President Nicolas Sarkozy also was unlikely to pass up an opportunity to score a diplomatic coup for Paris. Turkey does not exactly mind taking a backseat in the Nagorno-Karabakh talks, as these negotiations are precisely what are holding up an agreement with Armenia that would give Turkey immense influence in the Caucasus. In fact, Turkish negotiators have privately told Azerbaijani representatives that even if Ankara made a few statements in defense of Baku on Nagorno-Karabakh, it would not take a prominent role in mediating the territorial dispute and intends to press forward with its negotiations with Armenia — with or without a deal on Nagorno-Karabakh. In short, this is an issue from which the Turks would prefer to keep their distance. Ankara can pursue a deal with Yerevan, avoid direct responsibility for the success or failure of the Nagorno-Karabakh talks and still have some room to maneuver. Besides France, other European players, like Germany, are also sticking to the sidelines of these negotiations. With strong political and trade ties with both Turkey and Azerbaijan, Germany does not want to rock the boat with either state. At the same time, Berlin is highly concerned over Baku’s threats to realign its energy links from Turkey to Russia, a move that would make the Europeans even more vulnerable to the Russian energy grip. Another meeting on Nagorno-Karabakh chaired by the Minsk Group is scheduled for early June in St. Petersburg. A lot can happen between now and then, but each step of these negotiations adds insight into how all of the players, big and small, are re-evaluating their interests and allies in the Caucasus.