As the Sri Lankan military captured the seventh and last jungle airstrip belonging to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in the eastern Mullaitivu district Feb. 3, the United States, the European Union, Japan and Norway issued a joint statement calling for the Tigers to lay down their arms and engage in cease-fire and political negotiations with Colombo. There is little doubt that the Sri Lankan military has dealt the Tigers, now desperately holding on to strips of territory in the east, a major blow over the past several months. While the Sri Lankan government will remain preoccupied with its ongoing battle against the Tigers, intensifying economic turmoil and the complexities involved with attempting to politically integrate the Tamil population, the military's successful campaign against the Tigers has enabled Colombo to clear its plate a bit, look beyond the island's coast and re-examine its geopolitical potential. (click image to enlarge) Sri Lanka sits at the southeastern tip of the Indian subcontinent in the waters of the Indian Ocean — southeast of the Arabian Sea and southwest of the Bay of Bengal. The landscape is divided into the central highlands, lowland plains and coastal belt. The core of the country lies in the south-central highlands where the river systems originate and agricultural production thrives. It is here where the majority (70 percent) Sinhalese Buddhist population is concentrated, while the minority Tamil population (18 percent) primarily inhabits the northern and eastern belts of the island where the jungle topography works in favor of an insurgent force like the Tigers. The small, teardrop-shaped island lies in the shadow of India, but its greatest geopolitical value comes from its position on top of the world's most strategic sea lanes. Sri Lanka sits right in the middle of the international shipping route that connects resource-hungry Southeast Asia with the energy-rich Persian Gulf. Forty percent of the world's oil supply traverses this path in the Indian Ocean. On Sri Lanka's northeastern is the strategic port of Trincomalee, one of the deepest natural ports in the world. Now that the Sri Lankan military has recaptured the vital Jaffna peninsula, Trincomalee faces a much less severe threat from the Tigers' naval wing, the Kadal Puli or Sea Tigers, which had the ability to hamper maritime trade along the island's northeastern coast with India regularly. Moreover, when they lost control of Jaffna, the Tigers also lost the sea power to transit militants and supplies between the group's northern and eastern strongholds, allowing the military to split the insurgency in half. Assuming that Sri Lanka can put a decisive end to the civil war and produce the political leadership with a vision to dramatically increase the island's economic prowess, Trincomalee could evolve into a major transshipment point for commerce traveling between Asia and the Middle East. Such a trading hub could rival the island of Singapore in economic might. Though Sri Lanka severely lags in political and social cohesion in comparison to Singapore, its larger size, strategic location and lower shipping costs could make it a true contender in the eastern trading sphere. Sri Lanka's strategic position along the Mideast-Asia sea lane in the Indian Ocean naturally attracts a great deal of foreign interest in Colombo. But India, as the hegemon of the Indian Ocean basin, will continue to view the small island as well within its geopolitical sphere of influence. In addition to geographic proximity, India is ethnically tied to Sri Lanka's Tamil minority. Indeed, the Tigers envision India's southernmost state, Tamil Nadu, as part of the Tamil Eelam homeland. New Delhi has a vested interest in keeping the Tamil rebel force contained to preserve its own territorial integrity, but also has a political commitment to its ethnic Tamil population. As a result, India tends to steer clear from overtly assisting Colombo with lethal force against the Tigers, preferring to devote more of its resources and efforts to developmental assistance and political mediation. In the past, this Indian need for restraint has allowed competitors like Pakistan (looking for more levers to contain its Indian rival) and China (looking primarily to strengthen security for its vital sea lanes) to edge their way into the island and cozy up to Colombo by providing more lethal and/or advanced forms of weapons assistance to the military. That said, Chinese and Pakistani involvement on the island remains limited under India's watch. Steadily enlarging its footprint in South Asia, the United States, too, has recognized Sri Lanka's strategic value. As the global hegemon of the seas, the United States has an interest in maintaining close ties to both India and Sri Lanka to hold its stake in the strategic Indian Ocean basin, with particular interest in the deep-water port of Trincomalee. Through relations with Colombo and New Delhi, the United States is well-positioned to counter geopolitical hotspots to the west in the Islamic world and to the east in Asia, where the U.S. military has brought growth of the Chinese military into sharp focus. But before Colombo can think about seriously entertaining other foreign suitors, it has more to do at home. While the level of hostilities has dropped dramatically, the civil war in Sri Lanka is far from over. The Tigers are a resilient and innovative force, and even though Colombo's military campaign has deprived the Tamil rebels of their conventional warfare capabilities, the Tigers can still regroup and carry out insurgent attacks, including suicide bombings, mortar attacks, raids and other types of operations that use improvised explosive devices. In addition, the Sri Lankan government now faces the challenging task of figuring out how to balance dominant Sinhalese political interests with a national security imperative to further integrate the country's Tamil population to deny the Tigers a strong support base. The global financial crisis is not making the situation any easier either; the loss of remittances from the Tamil diaspora now totals $3.4 billion, or nearly 13 percent of the country's gross domestic product. Though Sri Lanka is privileged with a number of geopolitical fortunes, it will be a while before it develops the attention span to realize its potential.
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