The presidents of Colombia, Mexico, Panama and Guatemala will convene for a summit on Jan. 16 to discuss the fight against drug-trafficking organizations. The summit follows an especially violent 2008 in Mexico, and amid worrying signs that Mexican cartels have been expanding their influence throughout Latin America. It also comes as Colombia and Mexico are looking to broaden their fight against the cartels to the countries that lie between them. But bringing these smaller, poorer Central American countries up to speed will be burdensome, both in terms of time and money. On Jan. 6, Panamanian chief anti-narcotics prosecutor Jose Abel Almengor said Mexican drug traffickers were taking over the role formerly played by Colombian traffickers in Panama. Given Panama's proximity to Colombia, this suggests that
Mexican traffickers are increasing their control of the drug shipment routes from the producing countries of Colombia, Peru and Bolivia to the main consumer, the United States. Guatemala also experienced substantial drug trafficking activity during 2008. This included shoot-outs along its border with Mexico; the arrest of Daniel Perez Rojas, the second-in-command of the feared Mexican cartel organization Los Zetas; and allegations by
Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom that drug traffickers had bugged his home and office and sought to kill him.
While to some extent Colombian cocaine is still shipped north via boats and semisubmersibles across the Caribbean and the Pacific — and to an even lesser extent via air — land routes along the Central American isthmus have become the drug-trafficking route of choice. Mexican and U.S. interdiction efforts account for this shift. In Mexico, the struggle for control of land routes can be extremely violent, having even managed to destabilize the world's 13th-biggest economy. In Colombia, the government has years of experience fighting its own drug cartels, enjoying victories against major groups like the Medellin cartel and the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, though it has had less success in eradicating coca production. Mexico and Colombia thus have much experience fighting drug cartels, with failures and wins. By contrast, countries like Panama and Guatemala have far fewer resources than Colombia and Mexico, and far less experience combating drug trafficking. Panama's and Guatemala's 2007 defense budgets combined totaled just $364 million, while Colombia's and Mexico's totaled a combined $7 billion. And while the U.S.-backed Merida Initiative will provide Central American countries support, the $100 million designated for Central America in 2009 will be split seven ways. Granted, Panama and Guatemala have much smaller territories to control. Even so, desertion and rampant corruption in their militaries (as in other Central American countries) make it impossible for these governments to control their territories in the face of better-funded, better-trained and better-armed drug traffickers. They also have no doubt taken notice of the high levels of violence resulting from Mexico's pursuit of the cartels. Guatemala and Panama accordingly will be wary of stirring up the whole hornet's nest of violence that Mexico has encountered. Ultimately, if Mexico and Colombia can force Mexican drug traffickers to spend more time protecting their long supply chain through Central America, the cartels will have to divert resources from the violent fighting in Mexico. (Mexico would much appreciate a reduction of pressure in its own drug war.) But corruption and the lack of resources and training make Central America much less prepared to fight the drug war than Mexico and Colombia, so bringing Bogota's and Mexico City's smaller, poorer neighbors up to speed will no doubt take time and significant resources.