Former Chechen military commander Sulim Yamadayev, whose brother Ruslan recently was assassinated, stated Sept. 29 that his family "did not have any blood feud enemies," referring to rival clan leader Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov. This complete reversal from Yamadayev's Sept. 26 declaration of war against the Kadyrov clan comes just one day before the "bloodbath" in Chechnya was to begin. Since the assassination and Yamadayev's threat, Russia has been bracing for an all-out civil war in Chechnya, but the Kremlin is working to either prevent or contain the eruption. After his brother's assassination Sept. 24, Yamadayev told Kommersant while on his way back to Chechnya that he would "kill Ramzan when Ramadan is over." Such a response was expected, since the Yamadayevs and Kadyrovs have been involved in a power struggle in Chechnya since approximately 2003, when the first Yamadayev brother, Dzhabrail, was killed. A clan war would not have been a fair fight for Yamadayev, whose forces — comprising the disbanded Vostok and Zapad battalions — are outnumbered 10 to 1 by the president's forces, but it would have been a messy conflict nonetheless. The Kremlin is in a tough position, since it supports both the Kadyrov and Yamadayev clans and cannot afford to have yet another war break out in Chechnya, as such a conflict would destabilize the entire Northern Caucasus (if not the whole Caucasus). STRATFOR has learned that the powers within the Kremlin have set up at least two plans in order to prevent — or at least contain — such a fight. First, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's right-hand man, Vladislav Surkov (who is half-Chechen) was the architect of Russia's success in the Second Chechen War and has presided over the continued peace in the Caucasus since. It was Surkov who created the balance between the two clans following the eradication of the Islamist groups in the republic, and now it is Surkov who is reining in the clans. According to STRATFOR sources in Moscow, when Yamadayev was on his way to Chechnya to his brother's funeral — and to seek revenge — Surkov directly ordered him to remain in Moscow and abandon his plan. Surkov has shown he is still in control, considering Yamadayev's declaration of solidarity with Kadyrov. But even with the leader of the Yamadayev clan's leash being held in Moscow, things are already in motion back in Chechnya, and there are rumblings that Yamadayev's loyalists are moving forward with plans to strike back at Kadyrov. This is where the second part of the Kremlin's plan is in place. Though violence is typical in the Northern Caucasus, Moscow simply wants to prevent a civil war. So Russian troops — who have been deployed for decades in the region — are holding their position in Chechnya instead of bunkering down for the winter. According to STRATFOR sources, all Russian troops in the Northern Caucasus are on alert, ready to step back in should the situation disintegrate. The Kremlin is hitting the possibility of instability in the region from both the top and bottom levels, confident it can prevent the so-called bloodbath. However, as seen in the past with Russian efforts in Chechnya, once tension does spiral out of control it is very difficult and painful for Moscow to pull things in the Caucasus back together — which is why the Kremlin is trying to prevent anything from starting at all.