Initial results indicate that Ecuadorians approved a new constitution Sept. 28 with over 65 percent in favor of the draft, which will boost Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa's hold over the country. Though the main thrust of the new constitution is to strengthen the powers of the president vis-a-vis the legislature, it also grants the president new powers over economic matters. The approval is a relief for Correa, who had threatened to resign if the constitution failed to pass. The new constitution has been in development for more than a year. Public support for the referendum sagged through much of the past year following a largely unorganized constituent assembly and a resulting decline in voter confidence. But as the draft constitution came together over the past few months, there was a surge of support for Correa, due in part to rising nationalistic fervor over interactions with neighboring Colombia as well as the increasing coherence and strength of the constitution. Much of the support comes from the lower classes, which have high hopes for Correa's redistributive policies and support his efforts to undermine Ecuador's oligarchs. The new constitution, widely seen as Correa's most ambitious project, is the country's 20th since it gained independence from Spain in 1822. Designed to strengthen the presidency above all other branches of government, this constitution gives the Ecuadorian president the power to dissolve congress, make judicial appointments, control the budget and call popular referenda with or without the support of congress. It also gives the president broad powers over the economy, from monetary policy to property rights. These tools most likely will be used to satisfy popular demand for land redistribution in Ecuador but will also be effective against major corporate interests in the country. It is clear that one of the industries Correa will continue targeting is the mining industry. The president has already come out and said that, while he may be satisfied with progress on renegotiating contracts with energy companies, he intends to push mining companies much harder to achieve mutually beneficial deals. The net effect of the constitutional referendum is to give Correa a big thumbs-up on his current trajectory. A strengthened central government and a clear mandate from the populace will give Correa the support he needs to pursue his policies. Furthermore, the constitution gives the president the option of serving two four- year terms. This will allow Correa to call an election as early as 2009, which he is expected to do. Should he still be popular in 2013, Correa will then have an opportunity to stay in power until 2017. Upon enactment of the new constitution, the past two years of Correa's presidency would not count toward his two terms. But Correa will have to balance a great number of challenges if he expects to rule effectively for the next eight years. With more responsibility for the economy given to the state, including providing subsidies to the poor and increasing restrictions on free enterprise, Correa will run the risk of overextending the government's reach. As the president of a country whose military ousted three presidents in the past seven years because of soured popular opinion, Correa will have to walk a fine line to maintain the level of public support he now enjoys.
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