Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr announced Aug. 28 that he has indefinitely suspended his 60,000-strong Mehdi Army militia, and that any member who does not comply with this directive will be banned from his organization. He went on to say that the Mehdi Army will complete its transformation into a religious and cultural organization under the new name Al-Mumahidun. Generally speaking, al-Sadr's actions are a good indicator of Iran's motives in its ongoing negotiations with the United States over Iraq. Ever since al-Sadr left Iraq to live in Iran in March 2007, the Iranian ayatollahs have more or less written his script. Thus, al-Sadr calling on his members to wage war against the infidels indicates that the Iranians want to pressure Washington. Conversely, al-Sadr talking about cease-fires and laying down weapons once and for all indicates that the Iranians want to make a goodwill gesture to the Americans to further talks. Al-Sadr's announcement on disbanding his militia comes at a crucial point in the U.S.-Iranian negotiations. When Russia started rolling tanks into Georgia in early August, the Iranians saw an opportunity to increase their leverage with the United States. Iran knew Russia was out to confront the West, and that the Middle East would make a good staging area for the revival of Cold War tensions. If an Iranian-Russian grand alliance could be formed, giving the Iranians security guarantees on things like the sale of the S-300 air defense system or the completion of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, the United States would be placed in a serious quandary. Consequently, the Iranians got bolder in their actions and rhetoric in the wake of the Georgia conflict. Even al-Sadr on Aug. 15 made a point of renouncing a cease-fire with the United States, calling on his followers to sign a blood pact to "take part in resistance in all the Muslim countries and especially Iraq, militarily and ideologically, to the occupiers, colonizers and secular Western thought." At that time, al-Sadr also fought strongly against the Iraqi government's pending security deal with the United States, which would set a framework for the U.S. military presence in Iraq after 2008. From the looks of it, Russia's actions in Georgia had helped throw a wrench in U.S.-Iranian talks. But as STRATFOR has discussed, the Iranians are also wary of Russian promises. The Russians have strung Iran along for years on a variety of defense and energy deals, and a Russian resurgence in the Caucasus — where Tehran has a foothold — also threatens Iran. If Iran cannot rely on Moscow for a secure alliance, it could feel pressured to accelerate its negotiations with Washington, as the United States is desperate to get out of Iraq and focus on bigger issues in Eurasia. In this context, the Iranians might have concluded that it is in their best interest to resist the lure of the Russian bear and instead work seriously toward a deal with the United States, thereby giving al-Sadr the go-ahead to lay down arms. It also might not be a coincidence that, in the past week, the U.S. and Iraqi governments have made tangible progress toward finalizing the security pact for a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq in 2011. But the situation is still extremely fluid. By hinting at progress in U.S.-Iranian talks, the Iranians also could simply be trying to attract Moscow's attention in hopes of securing stronger backing from Russia to use against the United States. It is safe to assume that the Iranians are still trying to figure out how to navigate through the diplomatic frenzy the Russians kick-started with their action in Georgia. But if al-Sadr actually follows through with his promise to disband the Mehdi Army, Iran will have revealed its hand.