An explosion occurred on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline in eastern Turkey late Aug. 5. Turkish energy officials say it will take at least 24 hours for the fire engulfing the pipeline to extinguish. Until then, it remains unclear what the extent of the damage is and how long it would take to bring the pipeline back online. The BTC pipeline pumps one million barrels per day (bpd) of Caspian crude to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea for export to the Western market. Despite the blast, exports are reportedly continuing from the Ceyhan port terminal, where storage facilities can hold 7.5 million barrels of oil (enough to fill seven large tankers). BP and its partners have also reassured the public that crude production is continuing at Azerbaijan's offshore fields, for stockpiling until the pipeline is repaired. Any disruption to the BTC flow is sure to send shockwaves through Europe, which is already reeling from high global crude prices and whose energy security depends on major energy links like the BTC pipeline to keep it from being wholly dependent on Russia for its energy needs. The line was built primarily to isolate regional powers such as Russia and Iran by providing an alternative source of energy to the European market while expanding Western influence over the South Caucasus and Caspian Sea regions. At this time, it is unclear what caused the explosion. The blast reportedly occurred around midnight in the underground pipe near the eastern town of Refahiye in Erzincan province, according to the Anatolia news agency. An official in the town was quoted by Anatolia as blaming the explosion on a mechanical failure, claiming that a fault in the system had been detected prior to the blast. However, Turkey's Cihan news agency reported later that the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) had claimed responsibility for the blast. The BTC pipeline is an ideal target for militants wishing to destabilize the Turkish state. When plans for this pipeline were first in motion, there was a great deal of concern over the security risks attached to running a pipeline through territory that the PKK considers part of Turkish Kurdistan. Major disruptions to this pipeline make Europe jittery, cut into revenues for Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia, and leave Turkey with the international embarrassment of having a spotlight shone on the state's conflict with its Kurdish minority. For this reason, Turkey routed the BTC line away from its heavily Kurdish-populated southeastern region as much as possible. That said, 669 miles of pipeline is still a lot for Turkish security forces to protect, making it difficult to completely defend the pipeline against such militant attacks. Although the PKK has explicitly threatened attacks on the pipeline since 2005, the group has focused its attacks instead on a natural gas pipeline between Iran and Turkey that runs straight through some of southeastern Turkey's most volatile areas, making it far more vulnerable to attacks than the BTC pipeline. For the PKK to carry out an attack on the BTC, the group would have to expand beyond its usual area of operations. That could prove difficult at the present time, however, considering the amount of pressure the militant group has been facing since Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government began cooperating with Turkey and the United States in early 2008 in uprooting PKK safe havens in northern Iraq. But the PKK also has a desire to make a strong comeback after spending the last several months under pressure from Turkish forces, and striking the BTC pipeline would certainly be a coup for the group. The PKK also might look to its former allies in Moscow for support at a time when Russia is seizing upon every opportunity to use energy resources to apply political pressure on Europe. Such attacks would not come without risks, however. A "success" would likely be immediately followed by a military crackdown the likes of which the Kurds have not suffered since the height of Turkish-PKK clashes in the 1990s. The PKK is not the only group in Turkey with a motive to target the BTC pipeline. Ergenekon, a shadowy, staunchly secular and nationalist organization that is believed to have ties with Turkey's "deep state" security apparatus, has a running agenda to enflame the Turkish-Kurdish conflict and plunge the ruling government into chaos. This group is already suspected of being behind a number of coup plots, unexplained attacks and political murders in Turkey that have been commonly attributed to the PKK. An attack on the BTC pipeline in the name of Kurdish militants would revive simmering tensions between the Turkish military, the ruling Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party and the PKK. Turkey has plenty of reason to cover up the attack and deny it was an act of sabotage. But now that a claim by the PKK has been issued (whether or not it was from the actual group or from others intent on reigniting Turkish-PKK clashes), Turkey will now have to respond forcefully against the PKK if it wants to reassure its European energy clients that it has control over security within its borders.