The output from Mexico's giant Cantarell oil field — the third-largest field in the world — is dropping faster than previously thought, according to a report released by Bloomberg on July 7. Production has declined 34 percent in comparison to last year, and the latest predictions are that state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) will deplete its oil reserves in 9.2 years if no new wells are brought online. Considering that Pemex contributes up to 40 percent of the government's budget, the repercussions of a serious decline in production would reverberate throughout Mexican society. Mexican President Felipe Calderon has proposed an energy reform bill that would bring in foreign funding and the expertise to begin new offshore drilling and expand Mexico's refining capacity. The Mexican oil industry was nationalized in 1938, an act that Mexicans consider sacrosanct. The March 18 anniversary of the nationalization, Expropiacion Petrolera, is celebrated as one of Mexico's patriotic holidays, and the issue is an incredibly emotional one within the country. Calderon's proposed energy reform is nonetheless vital for Mexico. The plan is currently being debated in Mexico's Congress, with the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party arguing against the constitutional reforms but standing in favor of the spirit of the reforms. The July 7 report on the seriousness of Pemex's production decline could spur the legislators into action, especially considering that as production declines, the government budget will be reduced accordingly. This would harm Mexico City’s ability to fight the $10 billion drug war, provide $20 billion worth of gasoline subsidies and social aid to its poor and meet other government expenses. There is therefore very little time left for Mexico, particularly if its remaining production will run out in the predicted 9.2 years. With oil reaching $150 a barrel, Mexico is missing out on the petrodollar bonanza that other oil producers are enjoying, especially because Mexico's lack of refineries force the government to import refined petroleum products at high prices and then subsidize them for the general populace. Foreign investment in infrastructure is essential for Pemex to begin bringing new offshore wells online, particularly because Pemex already knows where most of the oil is, it just cannot get to it alone. The latest figures indicating a dramatic decline in production could be the impetus Mexico's politicians need to take action.
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