Malaysian opposition leader and former Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has gained new life after a five-year ban on his participation in politics ended April 15. Already, Anwar — one of Malaysia's most well-known politicians — says he has enough support to topple the government with a no-confidence vote. Anwar, 60, has already gained support from 30 defectors in Maylasia's ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional (National Front). Lawmakers from Malaysia's Sabah and Sarawak states on Borneo island allegedly are considering switching sides. Even so, Anwar, who is widely believed to have his eye on the premiership, isn't rushing in. He plans to wait to act until he gains more supporters and a comfortable margin in the country's parliament, saying he would rather have more than "a two- or five-seat majority." The primary factor enabling Anwar's political resurrection is the fracturing leadership within Malaysia's ruling coalition government. These fractures began appearing several years ago, as STRATFOR reported in 2006. Anwar will try to capitalize on the differences between Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and his predecessor, Mahathir Mohamad, to return to power. If Anwar is able to make good on a plan to unseat the National Front, it could eliminate some of the factors contributing to the political uncertainty Malaysia faces. These factors include:

• The fresh struggle between the ruling National Front coalition and the opposition now led by Anwar — a battle that promises to heat up as the two sides try to gain majority control over the national government.
• The lack of clear leadership direction within the ruling coalition, which is dominated by Badawi's party, the United Malays National Organization (UMNO). Badawi said April 11 that he will step aside as prime minister in 2009 and hand over power to Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. But the ruling coalition has been hampered by a trail of scandals involving Najib — including alleged misuse of Defense Ministry funds and the alleged murder of a 28-year-old Mongolian — plus increasing verbal assaults. Former Prime Minister Mahathir has continued criticizing his successor. This means the Badawi-Najib transition will be turbulent — if it happens at all.
• Lastly, if Anwar succeeds, there is the question of whether he can direct the three parties within the opposition coalition to govern effectively. With all the uncertainty, turbulence over policymaking will continue — even assuming that the Malaysian military maintains its current distance from politics.

If Anwar gains enough support to take over leadership of the Malaysian government, the uncertainty stemming from inside the National Front — and the uncertainty of who is going to direct Malaysian policies for the next five years — will no longer have as significant an impact on businesses inside the country. Then it would be a question of whether Anwar has the ability to hold things together. Certainly, Anwar has come a long way out of the woods to re-enter politics, years after he was dumped by the ruling party, UNMO, in 1998 after a falling-out with then-Prime Minister Mahathir. Anwar was later arrested, charged and eventually acquitted of charges of sodomy, but he still suffered a five-year ban on holding party or political office, stemming from a 2003 corruption charge. On March 8, still banned from politics, Anwar sat out the national election in which the opposition coalition of his Keadilan Party and its allies captured five of 13 states. UNMO has been thrown into disarray, falling below a two-thirds parliamentary majority for the first time in four decades. Compared with a decade ago, Anwar's chances of toppling the government are higher now, given the incumbent prime minister's relatively weaker grip. Anwar is riding high following the election, which has sparked euphoria and optimism in his opposition coalition. The game for power is afoot. Expect the sources of political uncertainty to intensify in the months ahead — and a showdown to take place within the next 12 months.