Now that nearly all the votes are tabulated in Italy's April 13-14 snap election, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's bloc has emerged with a solid majority in both the Italian Senate and lower house of parliament. Though Italian governments are known for their chronic instability — Italy has gone through 62 governments since World War II — this government has some surprising changes from the past, potentially allowing Italy to fit better into a shifting Europe. Italy's history of regional feuding has produced an extraordinarily chaotic political environment. Most Italians pledge their loyalty to — and root their identity in — their home regions rather than to the Italian state. Combined with widespread corruption and organized criminal activity, this means few think of the national government as a meaningful entity. This has created a sort of patchwork of political alliances, with each region acting on its own whims. It also has allowed a sort of revolving-door string of governments that often collapse within a year because of geographic rivalries or fickle ideological alliances. Following the collapse of the government of former Prime Minister Romano Prodi on Jan. 24, Italian President Giorgio Napolitano dissolved the parliament Feb. 6 and called new elections. These elections seemed to follow past trends, with an overwhelming 158 parties running. Italy's parliament previously has seen more than 20 parties win seats by satisfying the low threshold (2 percent floor for coalition parties) for gaining representation. This has permitted relatively small parties to enter parliament and produced wildly unstable coalition governments. The outgoing Prodi government, for example, was made up of 16 parties with a nine-party ruling coalition. This trend could have been broken during the recent elections, in which only six parties (five of them part of two coalitions) were actually elected into the government. This has created a force of two major competing entities: the right under Berlusconi and the left formerly under Prodi and the mayor of Rome, Walter Veltroni. In short, this outcome makes Italy look a little more normal and stable. That each coalition is mainly made up of two parties (with the third party under Berlusconi having only 8 seats out of 640) also signals the possibility of a more stable Italy. But this is not to say that Italy will be successful in combating its slew of issues and problems this time around, such as its disastrous debt, influx of immigration and lack of a voice on the international stage. Such matters could have begun being addressed under Prodi. He was probably the most competent prime minister Italy has had in a generation, helping Italy meet all the requirements to join the eurozone despite its debt and corruption. Instead, it is likely that Berlusconi's third term as prime minister will be much like his first two, during which Italy accrued debt at the most rapid rate in its history while ignoring most of its problems. Besides the possibility of a more stable Italy, the other surprise from the elections is that the Communists and the Greens did not get into parliament. Italy once boasted the largest Communist Party in Western Europe, along with a consistently strong showing by the Greens. This shift falls in line with a trend STRATFOR has observed of a declining European left. Left-wing parties dominated European politics throughout the 1990s and early 21st century. Starting in 2007, however, the European left has seen its power diminish, with most European governments moving rightward, including two of the "Big Three" (Germany and France, but not the United Kingdom). Even in former Communist or Warsaw Pact countries, there has been a shift to the right, including in Poland. (click image to enlarge) Of course, this is simply a broad overview of European politics, since the terms left and right have different meanings depending on the country in question. The "right" in Scandinavian countries is more like "center" groups in other European states, and the "left" in the United Kingdom is more conservative than conservatives on the Continent. But broadly speaking, the rightward shift has only consolidated as the 21st century has ticked on. And now Italy has followed the European trend. The question now is whether the right will be able to consolidate its hold on the Continent. This already is being seen in European affairs, such as with the more watered-down European constitution now on the table. A consolidated Europe would bring the countries of the Continent closer together with regard to tackling common issues such as immigration and economic reform. Moreover, it would allow for a more unified relationship with the United States, as well as with Russia — for better or for worse. The U.S. reach into Europe is deep, especially via NATO. A more politically unified Europe is also the perfect tool to keep Russia in check, keeping its large neighbor from muscling in or fracturing the European Union. Though there is a potential for a more unified Europe under the rule of the "right," the competition between powers like Germany and France to be the leader a unified Europe most likely will prevent this potential unification. Not to mention that, though the United States sees a unified Europe as a tool to push back Russian influence, Washington also remembers the Europe of old, in which unification of the Continent under a single power — such as Germany — could lead to a pushback against the United States as well.
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