FREE PODCAST The Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of Tibet, frequently travels abroad from his base in India for teaching, speeches and political interaction. During 2008 he is currently scheduled to visit the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France and Australia. With protests and riots in Tibet and western China, and political tensions rising between China and other nations over Beijing's handling of the Tibet situation, his visits this year — particularly those ahead of the Beijing Olympics — could represent a greater security issue for the Dalai Lama than usual. Chinese officials have portrayed the violence in Tibet and surrounding provinces as the direct result of the Dalai Lama's actions. Beijing has hinted at an international conspiracy backing the so-called "Dalai Lama Clique" to create discord in China and undermine the Communist Party and China's territorial integrity. While few foreigners accept China's characterization of the Dalai Lama as a terrorist mastermind, many countries' governments will take Chinese political sensitivities into account before allowing a visit by the Dalai Lama or arranging meetings between political leaders and the Tibetan spiritual leader. The Dalai Lama's travel schedule already is raising political issues with China and in the countries in question. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said he will meet with the Dalai Lama during the Tibetan leader's May visit — a political imperative to demonstrate that Brown is not giving into Chinese pressures and ignoring human and religious rights issues in China during the Olympic year. Beijing has criticized the planned meeting. More meetings with political leaders in other countries on the Dalai Lama's itinerary are likely, as leaders will want to demonstrate that their respective trips to Beijing for the Olympics do not mean they are ignoring human rights issues in China. The Dalai Lama does not only pay state visits, however. Most of his travels are to spiritual centers and universities for speeches and teaching. Security at these venues is not nearly as robust as at that found on a presidential or prime ministerial visit — though he will be protected by the State Department's Diplomatic Security Service on the U.S. leg of his travels. The Dalai Lama could face a heightened threat this year at these less secure venues. Beijing has portrayed the violence in Tibet as stemming from separatist ethnic Tibetan militants and criminals fighting the majority ethnic Han Chinese. While Beijing has tempered this with pictures of some Tibetans helping the Han during the riots in Lhasa to prevent vigilante action by the Han against the Tibetans, there are already reports of Hui (Muslim Han, a large component of the Han settlers in Tibet) carrying out attacks on Tibetans. Chinese media have emphasized the deaths of Han Chinese shopkeepers, particularly women, who died when their stores were ransacked and set ablaze. These are emotionally charged images, and could trigger violent responses inside China. But they might also stir up ethnic nationalist Chinese sentiments abroad, raising the specter of an individual or small group plotting to assassinate the Dalai Lama during his travels. From a protective intelligence perspective, such lone-wolf operations are often difficult to predict and defend against, particularly as the Dalai Lama will be attending numerous public functions. Accordingly there also will be a high probability of demonstrations and potential bomb threats during the Dalai Lama's travels.
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