While Ukraine's new parliament settles in under Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko appears to be making some international and domestic moves that could not only help him make a comeback but also fracture the country's other two (and much larger) political factions. Over the past year, the political tussle among Ukraine's three main political factions — former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich's Party of Regions, Yushchenko's Our Ukraine and Timoshenko's eponymous party — has left Yushchenko and Our Ukraine nearly obliterated. In the early elections in September 2007, Yushchenko's party won only 14 percent of the vote, while Yanukovich and Timoshenko's parties received 34 percent and 31 percent, respectively. In the following months, Yushchenko was unsure whether he could stomach forming another coalition with Timoshenko in order to gain control of parliament, knowing he would have to give her the premiership. But Yushchenko and Timoshenko's shared ideology of guiding Ukraine toward the West and away from Russia took priority over the politicians' dislike for each other and lack of trust, and the Orange coalition was once again in charge in Kiev. However, since Timoshenko took the premiership, Yushchenko has changed his tune and appears to be working on limiting his coalition partner's power while beefing up his role as president, both internationally and domestically. On Feb. 5, the World Trade Organization (WTO) is expected to accept Ukraine as a member. Ukraine's long-awaited membership in the WTO is something Yushchenko has fought tooth and nail for, and he is the one basking in the credit — something rare for Yushchenko, whose achievements are regularly usurped by Timoshenko. Ukraine's WTO membership is also a slap in the face to Ukraine's large neighbor, Russia, whose attempts at membership likely will never bear fruit. Moreover, the entry will give Kiev an upper hand over Moscow in economic negotiations. Within Ukraine, the country's impending WTO membership is boosting support for Yushchenko and allowing him to appear to be the real pro-Western politician. Meanwhile, Timoshenko is facing heavy criticism for causing difficulties with Russia over privatizations and energy negotiations. Yushchenko is taking advantage of the poor light shining on Timoshenko and has been working to curtail her power as prime minister while he can, but he does not have nearly enough parliamentary seats to get any measure passed in the legislature on his own. In light of this, Yushchenko has made a startling new alliance in which he and a political enemy both are working against Timoshenko. STRATFOR sources say Yushchenko and Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov have decided to work together against Timoshenko now and return to their opposite political positions later. Akhmetov is Ukraine's richest man, owning assets in energy, steel, coal, banking, hotels, telecommunications, media and even soccer. Moreover, he is the financial support behind the opposition pro-Russian Party of Regions and is heavily tied into the Kremlin. Since becoming premier, Timoshenko has said that Akhmetov and his assets — especially his energy assets — are her No. 1 target. Akhmetov hopes that a team effort with Yushchenko could block Timoshenko's attacks and possibly get some of his party members into strategic offices before the 2009 presidential election. Already Yushchenko and Akhmetov have managed to get one of each of their people approved for the top security offices. Pro-Yushchenko Valentin Nalivaychenko now is the director of the Ukrainian Security Service, and pro-Yanukovich Raisa Bogatyreva is the secretary of national security. Parliament ratified pro-Yushchenko Oleg Dubina's nomination as head of state energy company Naftogaz Ukrainy; in return, Yushchenko has decided not to dismiss pro-Yanukovich Alexandre Medvedko as prosecutor-general, thus ensuring that Timoshenko will have difficulty legally going after Akhmetov's assets. Yushchenko and Akhmetov's next move is to limit the powers of the prime minister. During the weekend of Jan. 26-27, Yushchenko handed parliament his version of the Cabinet of Ministers Law, under which the president — rather than the parliamentary majority — would choose the prime minister. The law is controversial, to say the least, particularly because parliament's powers also would become far more limited. Yushchenko has made a very wise yet very dangerous move in choosing Akhmetov as a partner. The decision is wise because it not only counters Timoshenko but also could fracture the Party of Regions. Though Akhmetov is the party's heart and financial backer, he does not head it; former Prime Minister Yanukovich is still in charge, and he reportedly is outraged by the Akhmetov-Yushchenko tandem. Yanukovich and his supporters are gearing up to rally against the president. This could split the party in two, though most would likely side with Akhmetov. Yushchenko needs the party's support for now, but he would greatly appreciate a split before he seeks re-election. Yet, Yushchenko knows that his partnership with Akhmetov is a very short one and could cause large problems once it is over. In the upcoming elections, Akhmetov also is eyeing the presidency, and the Party of Regions knows that taking back the top spot — especially if it is a more powerful post — is one of its only chances in the near future to turn Ukraine away from the West. Akhmetov can be a formidable opponent if provoked and has been accused of having ties with the Ukrainian mafia. Akhmetov's future ambitions are not the only hurdles Yushchenko faces in solidifying his comeback. Though she is weakening, Timoshenko — who is after the presidency as well — is a tough political fighter who has bounced back from difficulties before. And Yushchenko, Akhmetov and Yanukovich all have had experience with Timoshenko after she has been scorned.
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