The war crimes trial against former Liberian President Charles Taylor resumed Jan. 7 at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands. The trial, under the auspices of the U.N.-supported Special Court for Sierra Leone, had faced six months of delays while Taylor reconfigured his defense team. A verdict is expected no sooner than 2009 — and the Taylor team is likely to appeal any guilty verdict. In any case, the former warlord of Monrovia is likely to end up in prison for a long time. Taylor, who ruled Liberia from 1997 to 2003, will face justice proceedings for his alleged support of the Revolutionary United Front during Sierra Leone’s decade-long civil war that ended in 2002. However, this case is likely to be the only one of its kind among contemporary African leaders allegedly complicit in war crimes and crimes against humanity, as the trial will have an unintended consequence: Other African leaders — specifically Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe — will be unlikely to accept exile deals, believing that the international community will not comply with the terms of such arrangements. Taylor is surely regretting the exile deal he accepted in July 2003. Facing pressure to step down from power, Taylor agreed to go into exile in the Nigerian city of Calabar. In return for this, he expected to be shielded from arrest. His exile did not last even three years. Under heavy international pressure, Nigeria arrested Taylor in March 2006 and transferred him to Freetown to face the Special Court for Sierra Leone. Court proceedings — and Taylor — were later transferred to The Hague for security purposes. Other contemporary African leaders facing pressure to leave office for alleged abuses of power will look at Taylor’s broken exile deal and be unwilling to accept their own exile deals. Rulers like Mugabe, who will be seeking another term in office when Zimbabwe holds presidential elections in March, are more likely to stay and die in office than accept exile under terms they can no longer believe will be honored. Taylor’s trial under way in The Hague will represent a victory for the victims of Sierra Leone’s civil war and remind political leaders that they can face trial for their alleged crimes. But the proceedings also will remind those leaders that their only true security guarantee is to remain in absolute power.