Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki on Dec. 30 was officially declared the winner of the presidential election, receiving 4.58 million votes to opposition leader Raila Odinga's 4.35 million. A mere hour after the results were announced, Kibaki was sworn in for a second five-year term and Odinga accused Kibaki of fixing the vote. Thousands of opposition supporters are demonstrating in the streets in support of Odinga, and the government has been tough and swift in cracking down. Police have been given the order to shoot to kill, officers anonymously told The Associated Press, although a government spokesman later denied that such an order was given. The death toll has continued to rise, hitting at least 124 by mid-afternoon, according to broadcaster KTN. Live media broadcasts were indefinitely banned Dec. 30, and the ban is still in effect. Despite the crackdown, Odinga has planned a large rally for Jan. 3, and has called for a million people to gather in Nairobi's Uhuru Park. Odinga has decried Kibaki's alleged poll-fixing, and the Kenya Election Domestic Observation Forum said the “electoral process lost credibility towards the end with regard to the tallying.” But Kibaki is not about to let the accusations unravel the government. He already has deployed the police and will not hesitate to deploy the army to ensure that law and order — and his victory — are secured. After a lifetime under Jomo Kenyatta and then Daniel Arap Moi (who together ruled Kenya for around 45 years) Kibaki is not just going to walk away after winning what is a (mere) second term. Kibaki also knows that Odinga legally does not have much of a leg to stand on since poll-rigging likely occurred on both sides. Although the coming week promises to be turbulent (particularly with Odinga's planned protest), Kibaki will stabilize the country and the protests will not change Kenya's long-term security outlook. Odinga's announcement of the rally merely means security forces will have all the more time to bust it up. Expect tear gas, rubber bullets and live rounds as backup should people actually turn out en masse. Despite the shake-up, life should return to normal once the dust from the election riots settles. This does not mean Odinga will simply slip away into the night, but he will need to wait until the next elections to try again for the presidential slot.
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