Summary As Lebanon delays its presidential vote for the ninth time Dec. 17, militant activity in Tripoli — the country's second-largest city — has begun picking up steam. With several groups building militias, Tripoli likely will be at the forefront of factional fighting in Lebanon. Analysis Lebanon remains in political paralysis as the presidential vote was delayed for the ninth time Dec. 17 over continuing differences between the Syrian-backed Hezbollah-led opposition and the Western-backed March 14 coalition led by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. As the political tussle in Beirut continues, militant activity in Lebanon's second-largest city and second-largest port — Tripoli — is gaining steam. A financial center located in northeastern Lebanon along the Mediterranean, Tripoli has a population of around 500,000, made up mostly of Sunnis and small pockets of Maronite Christians and Alawites (an offshoot of Shiite Islam). As tensions persist between Lebanon's rival Sunni, Shiite and Maronite Christian factions over the election of Lebanon's new president and Syria's growing prowess in the country, Tripoli will be at the center of the sectarian drama. The city is essentially divided into four hostile ghettos, each displaying its own particular security and political orientation. These ghettos are controlled by the following groups: 1. Islamist militant group Harakat al-Tawhid al-Islami of Bilal Shabnan. This group is supported by Syria and Iran and maintains close ties with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It also has good working relations with the Syrian regime, thanks to financial aid from the Iranians. Tripoli was the scene of a violent clash Nov. 27 between Harakat al-Tawhid al-Islami members and March 14 coalition leader Saad al-Hariri's supporters. 2. Former Lebanese Prime Minister Omar Karameh's following. Karameh comes from a traditional Sunni political family in Tripoli, and is the brother of former Prime Minister Rashid Karameh, who was assassinated in 1987 by Maronite leader Samir Geagea's operatives. Karameh is a close ally of Syria and is diametrically opposed to the rival Sunni Tayyar al-Mustaqbal movement led by al-Hariri. 3. Al-Hariri's Tayyar al-Mustaqbal (or Future Current) movement. Saad is the son of slain former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, whose assassination led to Syria's troop withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005. Al-Hariri's supporters are rising in Tripoli, but they are no match for Harakat al-Tawhid al-Islami. 4. The Alawites in Bael Muhsin, which overlooks the city of Tripoli. The Alawites constitute about 100,000 residents in Greater Tripoli. They are on excellent terms with the Syrian regime, and are the recipients of its largesse. They are isolated from other ghettos and are unlikely to ally themselves with them, except with the Maronite Mirada grouping in Zgharta. Syria has been busy sending munitions to the Harakat al-Tawhid al-Islami movement in the aftermath of the clashes that erupted in the Abu Samra neighborhood in Tripoli between Harakat al-Tawhid al-Islami and al Hariri's Tayyar al-Mustaqbal partisans. The latest munitions originated from the Zabadani area at the eastern slopes of the Anti-Lebanon mountains, and were smuggled into the Bekaa Valley under the supervision of a Syrian intelligence operative named Khalil Hannoun (also known as Abu Rafiq). The arms were delivered in the Suwayri area near the Bekaa village of Anjar before reaching their final destination in Tripoli. Not to be outmatched, al-Hariri's Tayyar al-Mustaqbal movement has spent the past several months building up its own paramilitary group in Tripoli, known as the Tripoli Brigades, or Afwaj Tarablus. This paramilitary group reports directly to al-Hariri and is especially active in the low-income Tibbani and Abu Samra areas. The militia has about 800 men, who are categorized as part-time helpers (each of whom receives $100 per month), full-time enlisted men (who each receive $300 per month), commissioned officers (who get paid $600 per month each) and top officers (who each receive $1,000 per month). The militia is run by retired army officers, all of whom are Sunnis from northern Lebanon. Most of the members are former Iraqi Baath Party members, which was once powerful in Tripoli, and Nasserists from Lebanon's Sunni al-Murabitun Movement, which was active during the civil war in the 1970s. Key leaders of this militia are retired Brig. Gen. Mustafa Qarhani and retired Capt. Abu Ahmad Marji. The Tripoli Brigades militia possesses a significant arsenal of light and medium weapons ranging from automatic rifles to 120mm mortars. With the militia-building business in full steam and communal tensions boiling, Tripoli will be at the forefront of factional violence in Lebanon.
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