With 70 percent of the votes counted in Ukraine's Sept. 30 parliamentary elections, it looks as if it is a dead heat between opposition party the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich's Party of Regions — each having won 32 percent of the vote. But once their prospective coalition partners are included, Timoshenko — along with President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense party — has the lead, with 47 percent. Although this might look like another triumph for the Orange Coalition, the coalition lacks a majority in parliament, meaning Ukraine's government will fall back into its cycle of power struggles between the different personalities. Most immediately, there will be claims of election fraud from Yanukovich's camp, which already is planning mass protests. Yanukovich's first complaint is that the exit polls were all conducted by pro-Western centers — financed by the U.S., British and Danish embassies — and that these polls are influencing the official count. But large discrepancies in the vote counting are being seen all over the country. In the end, the Central Election Commission has a say in the final tally — and Yanukovich has much sway in that office. Beyond the immediate turmoil the election is causing, the results give Timoshenko the opportunity to become prime minister — once again. She and Yushchenko have their sights set on dealing with Russia's moves into Ukraine, though they will have a nasty fight on their hands. Russia's geopolitical efforts mean nothing if it cannot resecure Ukraine. Though Russia's candidate, Yanukovich, has the most votes, the vote tally so far still is a blow to the pro-Russian movement in Ukraine. Now, Russia will have to interfere in Ukraine and its pro-Western government by other means. While all three major Ukrainian political personalities have been busy with their election campaigns, Russia has been buying up chunks of the country's energy, electricity and mineral sectors. Yushchenko has said he is ready to take control of all negotiations with Russia over energy — and the last time this occurred, Russia cut the flow of natural gas to Ukraine. But one of the first comments from Timoshenko on Oct. 1 was that she is prepared to take over negotiations with Russia herself. The struggle over who gets to control Ukraine's energy negotiations could break the coalition apart, though not immediately. But Timoshenko has another large target in her sights. She made it clear in the run-up to the elections that she is ready to confront those within Ukraine who have "allowed" Russia to make these moves (especially the oligarchs). The main pro-Russian oligarch she is eyeing is Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest man, and one of the most powerful. Akhmetov also has been making large moves into the energy sector and is known to be very close to the Kremlin's energy champion, Gazprom. As in the past, the Orange Coalition has named its target — but then, the lights got turned off the last time it tried to challenge Russian moves into the energy sector, and Yanukovich won the election that followed. With the presidential election now less than a year away, the personality squabbles will continue — but Russia now has a few more tools under its control.