Troops from Myanmar's Central Command and South East Command were dispatched toward Yangon on Sept. 28, according to Myanmarese dissidents in India, although it is unclear whether the troops aim to reinforce or counter those responsible for the shooting deaths of Buddhist monks in the former capital a day earlier. Protests, initially triggered by fuel price hikes, have been taking place in Yangon since Aug. 19, though they gathered mass and momentum after Buddhist monks — no strangers to Myanmarese politics — joined in. Although troops have been monitoring the situation since the beginning, they were called into action Sept. 26 after thousands of protesters ignored official warnings to disperse from the center of Yangon. Government media reported that nine demonstrators were killed during clashes with troops, though foreign sources suggested the death toll was much higher. Troops also raided monasteries in northeastern Myanmar and Yangon, reportedly arresting more than 800 monks. The large-scale protests and the delay in the government crackdown have raised speculation that the time is ripe for the military-led government to be ousted. The regime, however, might not be as endangered as it appears at first glance. A multitude of factions and stakeholders are involved — and their actions have yet to be determined. The regime itself is fractured by infighting between military and intelligence factions and the different ethnic militias. Signs that certain factions were beginning to speak out in support of the civilian protesters likely forced the military to intervene and stage its aggressive crackdown. However, given the junta's current isolation from the chaos in Yangon (far off in the new capital, Naypyidaw) and its immunity from any additional sanctions — U.S. and EU sanctions have been in place for some time, while China and India will not be adding any because they need Myanmar's resources — the regime is not overly concerned. Moreover, the Myanmarese opposition is scattered and without central leadership, while the military junta has infiltrated all parts of society, including the Buddhist sanghas. Unless protesters in Yangon can coordinate with the country's various ethnic groups and armies to form a cohesive opposition, the junta remains safe. Moreover, even if an ad hoc group managed to come together long enough to overthrow the junta, it would soon crumble should leadership conflicts emerge. For regime change to occur in Myanmar, then, one or more of the region's three key players — China, India or Thailand — would have to intervene. (Or another key player from outside the region would have to). Myanmar is geopolitically important to each of these three states, for reasons of energy assets and access, geopolitical buffer zones and domestic political stability. Any of these key players would weigh the costs and benefits, as well as the strength of the opposition, before making a move in Myanmar. However, both India and China are more concerned about protecting their energy and buffer zone interests than they are with international opinion — and they are unlikely to send military troops into the country. Thailand is caught up in a sensitive period of internal politics and the last thing it needs is to meddle in a neighboring country that has millions of potential refugees. Barring intervention from outside the region, then, regime change is unlikely in Myanmar. But then the key players in the region care less about what happens to the current regime than they do about maintaining the status quo vis-à-vis their geopolitical interests.