Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a reshuffling of his Cabinet on Feb. 15. Although information remains thin at this point — as there has been no public statement as to whether key ministers are being moved or fired — what is known now is this:

• Sergei Ivanov has been promoted from defense minister and deputy prime minister to first deputy prime minister.
• Ivanov's replacement as defense minister is Anatoly Serdyukov, the former director of the Federal Tax Service.
• His replacement as deputy prime minister is Sergei Naryshkin, the government chief of staff. He is also deputy chairman of the board of directors of Rosneft, the Russian state oil firm.

The key bits of information missing at this time are the status of the two most powerful people on Putin's team: First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov. Their fates will determine whether this is a simple reshuffle to prepare for the 2008 presidential election or Putin's final decision on which path he feels Russia should follow. Scenario No. 1: Medvedev and Fradkov stay in their current positions. Medvedev and Ivanov are widely anticipated to be the two people to whom Putin plans to transfer power when he steps down as president in 2008. Assuming Medvedev is not dismissed, the two would formally and legally be on equal footing. This would indicate no real change since everyone already sees the two men as trusted confidants of the president — and already equal in Putin's eyes. Based on current information from U.S. government officials, this seems the likeliest scenario. Scenario No. 2: Medvedev is promoted to prime minister and Fradkov is fired. Fradkov has no power base of his own and is a disposable bureaucrat whom Putin installed to absorb and deflect any criticism over unpopular policies. Dismissing him and moving Medvedev into his slot would be very similar to the first scenario, with one exception. Fradkov is not only Putin's bureaucrat, but also belongs to Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman. If Fradkov is dismissed, it would be a huge blow for the Fridman camp, and would indicate that Fridman's assets — such as oil major TNK-BP — could be about to face significant difficulties as Kremlin politics realign. Scenario No. 3: Medvedev is dismissed. While this is the least likely scenario — as of now we have detected no indication of any falling out between Medvedev and Putin; if anything, their relationship is strengthening — this would indicate that Putin already has decided that the time has come for a far more militarily aggressive strategy for Russian policy, both foreign and domestic, and that Ivanov will be his successor. While Ivanov is a pragmatist, he also leads the country's siloviki faction of national security personnel who want to see Russia re-attain its status as a great power. The appointment of an economist from St. Petersburg — Serdyukov — to the Defense Ministry would be intended to serve as a check on the siloviki's power, ensuring that what resources it does manage to access are used prudently.