Al Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri issued his second statement of December on the 29th. Although it appeared directly on the Internet, as have most of the other releases from al Qaeda's core leadership over the past year, this one neither contained a fresh image of al-Zawahiri nor displayed the sophisticated production techniques usually seen in releases by al Qaeda's media branch, As-Sahab. On Dec. 20, al-Zawahiri did appear in a new As-Sahab video, though the jihadist network took a step backward, releasing that video through Arab television network Al Jazeera. Al Qaeda's last two releases of 2006, then, stand out more for how they were delivered to the public and for their inconsistent production quality than for anything al-Zawahiri had to say. This is further indication that some part of As-Sahab's production or distribution cycle — or perhaps both — has been compromised. The latest statement, dated December 2006 and posted on several Web sites known to carry messages from the global jihadist network, was released to mark the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha. The image of al-Zawahiri that appears on it, however, is not new, but rather is a still shot taken from the Dec. 20 release. The video, which carries As-Sahab's logo, was issued in Arabic with English subtitles. Little is new in al-Zawahiri's most recent message, which runs more than 15 minutes. The statement, in fact, reads like a "state of the jihad" address, with al-Zawahiri spanning the globe to discuss nearly every segment of the jihad. He refers to fighting in Kashmir, Chechnya, the Philippines, Afghanistan, Iraq, East Africa and elsewhere. He also condemns Muslim leaders, including Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh for opposing al Qaeda, or for serving the interests of the West. Although the message might not be particularly telling about al Qaeda's intentions or capabilities, the lower quality of the production itself suggests something is amiss inside As-Sahab. In the past, As-Sahab has released professional-quality videos of al-Zawahiri, often with elaborate digital backdrops. This latest message, while a new recording from al-Zawahiri, shows only a still image of him. This is out of character for al-Zawahiri, who often appears in new videos separated by mere weeks. He has not issued an audio message in nearly a year. This one, then, is more like the statements attributed to al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Al Qaeda has a history of releasing statements to coincide with Muslim holidays. Eid al-Adha is a fixed date on the calendar, meaning As-Sahab would have had plenty of time to plan and produce a more elaborate video. The video's simplicity, however, does not mean it was rushed into production. There is no mention of the retreat beginning Dec. 26 of Islamist forces in Somalia following the Ethiopian assault, or of the execution of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, indicating the message was recorded prior to these events. For most of 2006, following the Jan. 13 airstrike on an alleged al Qaeda safe-house in Damadola, Pakistan, al Qaeda delivered most of its messages via the Internet, rather than through Al Jazeera using a system of couriers. For the Dec. 20 video, however, As-Sahab reverted to its former method. This inconsistency in distribution could indicate something has been compromised in al Qaeda's ability to get these statements onto the Web. Furthermore, although other factors could be involved, it would appear that whatever facilities were at As-Sahab's disposal for the Dec. 20 video were not available for this latest release. This could be because the production cycle was compromised, or because security considerations dictated a move to a less-vulnerable, more-austere location. It could also be that operational and security conditions made it too difficult to get to al-Zawahiri to make a new video. It seems clear that either As-Sahab's production or distribution methods — or possibly both — have been degraded. However, the group's command and control for media releases seems to be intact to the extent that it is able to release a video to coincide with a fixed date on the calendar.
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