We have long predicted that time was running out for Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and it ran out Tuesday, when army chief Lt. Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratglin staged a coup. Although the coup provides a definitive answer to the question that has plagued Thailand since the April 2 snap elections — that is, who will run the country — Thailand's troubles are still not over. Thaksin is not one to go down quietly; however, he has very little room to maneuver, and there is even the distinct possibility that he will not be allowed back into the country for some time. Or, that upon his return he will be jailed for corruption and election fraud. Thaksin is beloved by the majority of Thailand's population for his rural reforms. His troubles have arisen primarily from the Bangkok middle class and the restive South. Despite his popularity, protests in Bangkok against Thaksin's corruption have plagued his rein and his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party. When the dust settles, the voices of those calling for democracy in Thailand will criticize the military's move to overthrow a democratically elected president — even if there are still lingering questions over fraud in the April 2 elections. This is just the start of the problems the new government will face. It still needs to resolve the violence in the South. There is good reason to believe that some of the violence was manufactured by both pro- and anti-Thaksin parties, trying to make subtle political statements to each other. Nevertheless, the violence and unrest is real. Sonthi faces the challenge of installing a leader in the South who is loyal to him (something that cannot be assumed after a coup), and who can make a significant difference. It is said that because Sonthi is a Muslim in a predominately Buddhist country, he may be better able to alleviate the troubles in the South than Thaksin was. However, the South is a mess of both ethnic battles and territorial skirmishes between drug lords. The reasons for the violence are complex, and cannot be solved overnight. Sonthi will not relinquish his new power until he has settled the disputes in the South. This will increasingly become the focus of the government after a general political framework has been agreed upon between Sonthi and the king. Only when he accomplishes this will he start to back out of politics, and even then he may have to be removed by force. Coups are the norm in Thailand; the country has had four coups (now five) and numerous political turnovers since the democratization movement in 1973. Democratic transfer of power is the anomaly. That said, a military regime and the resulting political situation will not necessarily spell the destruction of Thailand's economy. The military regime will bring some form of stability to a country that has been languishing in political chaos since April. It could help to reform the constitution and give the country a clean slate for new democratic elections in the future. At the moment, the future is still murky. The king still needs to weigh in, and could surprise Sonthi with his vision for the near future. But one thing is clear: Thaksin is done.