An Indian federal investigation led by retired Supreme Court Judge Umesh Chandra Banerjee produced a Jan. 17 report that claimed the deadly 2002 train fire in the town of Godhra in Gujarat was an accident, originating with a kerosene cooking stove or a stray cigarette inside one of the coaches of the Sabarmati Express. The train was carrying 59 Hindu pilgrims returning from the disputed site of Ayodhya, where Hindu fundamentalists destroyed a mosque in 1992. The investigative committee has dismissed claims by eyewitnesses that Muslim militants torched the train, citing reports of a burning smell followed by smoke and flames inside the train. The committee also expressed disbelief that the trident-armed Hindu pilgrims would sit idle in the face of such an attack. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) immediately denounced the government's findings, claiming that the ruling Indian National Congress (INC) party timed the report's release to aid Railway Commissioner Lalu Prasad Yadav in garnering Muslim votes for the Feb. 3 Bihar state elections. Meanwhile, a police investigator told both the federal commission and a BJP-controlled Gujarat state government probe that nine people in a guesthouse near the Godhra railway station planned the train fire and that there was evidence that 15 gallons of gas had been purchased the day before the incident and stored behind the guesthouse. Both sides to the story raise reasonable doubt, so it is impossible to conclusively determine the cause of the fire, which led to some of the biggest and deadliest religious riots in Indian history. Furthermore, the Bihar state elections probably do not hold enough weight for the INC to falsify the report just to aid Yadav in the upcoming elections. It is clear, however, the INC is intent on securing its political stronghold against penetration by the BJP. The investigative report illustrates the classic struggle between the INC's secular moderates and the BJP's hardcore Hindu nationalists. The BJP often has been accused of turning a blind eye to the aftermath of the train tragedy and of encouraging sectarian rifts in order to collect votes in the name of Hindu nationalism. The investigation, which stemmed from one of the INC's campaign pledges to find the true cause of the incident, has yielded a report the INC can use to place the BJP in an unfavorable light and claim the former ruling government exploited a delicate religious situation that worsened India's community divisions and unnecessarily left hundreds dead. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's INC came to power in May 2004 with the undeniable aid of Muslim votes and has since sought to ease tensions between Hindus and Muslims. In a country of more than 1 billion people, 13 percent of the Indian population is Muslim — a sizable voting bloc the INC would like to secure as a major portion of its voting base. The May 2004 general elections gave the INC — running on the platform of the United Progressive Alliance coalition — a 40 percent parliamentary majority, while the BJP — running on the platform of the United Democratic Alliance — gained a considerable 34 percent hold in Parliament. Currently, the INC receives about 47 percent of the Muslim vote — a figure the party would like to see rise in the event of early elections to counter the BJP. By rejecting the claim that the 2002 train fire was inspired by Muslim activists, the INC could use this report as a sign of gratitude to its Muslim constituency. STRATFOR does not believe the Gujarat report will spark a commotion between India's Hindu and Muslim populations. By stating that the train fire was "accidental," the INC is encouraging the BJP to openly defy the findings of the investigation and appear to the Indian public as the anti-Muslim, Hindu fundamentalist political party. Regardless of the truth behind the report, this image bodes ill for the BJP's political future. Meanwhile, the INC will grow stronger at the BJP's expense and will use any opportunity to prevent the rise of Hindu nationalism and take a stand as the catch-all people's party of India.