More than three years have passed since the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States. Since then, violence has been threatened against every institution of American life — workplaces, public transportation, shopping malls, places of worship, sports stadiums, schools and amusement parks, to name just a few — but no attack has been carried out on U.S. soil.
Although the mainstream media have reported on a type of fatigue the general public experiences after adjusting their lives to threat after threat, little has been said about the fatigue experienced by the law enforcement and counterterrorism agents charged with protecting the people and infrastructure of the nation.
Thirty-seven months of constant vigilance, and rapid response to the onslaught of threats, have strained U.S. security forces physically and psychologically — not to mention the havoc this state of affairs has played on law enforcement budgets.
Officers not only are working extended hours and extra shifts, and postponing or canceling vacations, they also have lived in a constant state of heightened alert. STRATFOR has been told that the psychological burden of addressing hundreds of thousands of threats each year has desensitized many officers, who now might view a new threat as "same thing, different day." Management, of course, is being forced to figure out how to fund overtime expenditures and maintain morale in a difficult work environment.
The repeated use of the color-coded alert system in the United States has caused another sort of burnout, sources told STRATFOR. Reports that the alert system is politicized have led many in the law enforcement community — and the general public — to believe the government is "crying wolf" when it raises the alert. However, signs indicate the government is aware of this problem and has taken steps to improve the system. For example, instead of sending out a nationwide warning, the last heightened alert went to specific regions, allowing only those officers most directly impacted by the threat to step up security measures. A scare in New York City does not necessarily mean Cincinnati needs to react.
Among the most difficult issues for those engaged in homeland security is that, unlike the soldiers fighting the war on terrorism in Iraq, Afghanistan and other distant lands, their tour of duty has no end. Their "war" — though obviously entirely different from the daily physical dangers faced by American troops in some regions — will continue day after day until who knows when.
STRATFOR is not suggesting the law enforcement community is doing a poor job. As we said, there has not been an attack within the United States for years. However, the high-stakes nature of the playing field demands a warning about complacency.
Law enforcement fatigue can lead to missed warning signs, which can result in failure to respond — or to a desultory response. Buried among the hundreds of thousands of false threats, could be the one someone intends to carry out. Although attention and concern seem to focus on militant Islamist networks and elaborate plots, the 1995 Oklahoma City attack proved that a small group of deranged individuals could just as easily create mayhem while law enforcement is looking the other way.
