Malaysia's Federal Court will rule Sept. 15 whether or not to overturn a corruption conviction against former Deputy Premier and Finance Minister Anwar Ibrahim. After the court overturned Anwar's sodomy conviction two weeks ago, the persecuted former official could be poised to make a political comeback. The Malaysian court could easily uphold the corruption conviction, putting a kibosh on Anwar's plan to return to politics; if the conviction is not overturned Malaysian law would prohibit Anwar — now a possible opposition candidate — from leading a political party or contesting an election until April 2008. However, if Anwar is cleared and returns to political life — becoming a gadfly in Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's administration — it will only be because the former premier has cut a deal with Abdullah's government. There is little chance Anwar will receive a fair, independent hearing in Malaysia's judicial system. If Abdullah still considers Anwar a threat to his government, the conviction will stand and the opposition will remain legally locked out of office for four more years. The situation would give Abdullah plenty of time to call general elections ahead of Anwar's eligibility for public office, effectively locking the opposition candidate out of government until 2012 — when he would be 65 years old. Abdullah, however, has reason to further rehabilitate Anwar and have the conviction overturned. Abdullah had Anwar released from jail and cleared from sodomy charges because it was a popular political move — many Malaysians view Anwar as a martyr. The prime minister could afford to release Anwar because he had the former official fairly well contained. Overturning Anwar's conviction would be another popular political move. Additionally, in the short term, it could improve investors' confidence, which took a hit when former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad imposed strict capital controls. Anwar publicly opposed the controls and fell out of favor with Mahathir. The former deputy prime minister's stance gives him an investor-friendly image to this day. If Abdullah's government does further rehabilitate Anwar, it would probably only occur under some sort of deal between the two politicians; there is no reason why Abdullah would risk setting free an opposition candidate who plans to launch an unrestrained political attack on his government. Such a deal would probably include Abdullah's granting Anwar a future senior post in the government and appealing to Anwar to use a unified platform to tackle Malaysia's problems. Abudullah's government would prefer to have Anwar as an ally as it tackles strong competition with other Southeast Asian nations and China as well as entrenched Islamist parties and the threat of militancy. Any deal in Kuala Lumpur, however, is not carved in stone. If Anwar becomes eligible for election, his agreement with Abdullah's government might not last and could quickly degenerate into a struggle between the two politicians.
RANE
SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Expert analysis when it matters most.

Get access to RANE's decision-grade geopolitical intelligence.