Taiwan's Energy Commission urged domestic refiners Feb. 13 to diversify their crude sources away from the Middle East to avoid shortages caused by a U.S.-led war against Iraq. The sentiment is sound, but bringing about such a change is beyond Taiwan's capabilities. According to the commission, Taiwan gets 74 percent of its crude from the Middle East, and almost exclusively from the volatile Persian Gulf. The problem is that there are few alternative supplies available. The only significant local crude exporters are Indonesia and Malaysia, and combined they export less than 700,000 barrels per day. Russia's Sakhalin fields currently are iced in for the winter as well. The closest other crude sources are Colombia and Mexico, and they are almost exclusively dedicated to the U.S. market. That leaves Nigeria as one of the few suppliers with consistently accessible cargos, but other countries besides Taiwan also are looking to similar alternatives in an attempt to diversify. Taiwan imports nearly 800,000 barrels of crude per day. Combined Japanese, Chinese and South Korean imports are more than 10 times that. But as hard as it will be for Taiwan to diversify, it is one of the fortunate states. The Taiwanese economy is robust enough to long-haul distant crude in a pinch. Moreover, state-owned Chinese Petroleum Corp. holds a more than 120-day stockpile of crude and refined products, more than twice the government requirements. Few other Asian states have built stocks that can approach Taiwanese preparations. Mainland China, for example, has yet to even begin building a strategic reserve. This will leave most of the rest of Asia in a pickle when the war begins. Persian Gulf producers long have charged an "Asian premium" on crude supplies due to the utter lack of alternatives. That policy will not change during a war. In fact, Saudi Arabia is so secure in its knowledge that it will be able to gouge Asia for more cash that as part of its preparations to offset the loss of Iraqi volumes, it will send additional tankers to the U.S. Gulf Coast, not energy starved Asia. And with Nymex prices already above $36 a barrel, most of Asia is on the verge of a very sharp and painful energy crunch.