A group of 20 to 30 armed people thought to be Chechen militants took an estimated 700 people hostage Oct. 23 at a Moscow performance center. The hostages included theater staff, actors and audience members who had arrived at the Sharikopogshipnik theater for a performance of the Nord-Ost musical, Russian TV reported.

Children and Muslims were released, but several witnesses — including hostages who were allowed to make cell phone calls, a French diplomat who was later released and actors who hid in their dressing rooms before managing to escape — said the captors, who were demanding the withdrawal of Russian forces from Chechnya, were wiring explosives in the theater. One teen-ager who was released also reported that the militants wired some of their hostages with explosives. The perpetrators, all said to be wearing explosives themselves, have threatened to blow up the theater if special forces and police try to storm the building.

The BBC was contacted as well by people claiming to be the hostage-takers. They identified their leader as a nephew of Chechen warload Arbi Barayev, who was killed by Russian special forces in Chechnya in 2001. Barayev was known as the "Terminator" because he allegedly killed more than 170 people, including three British citizens and a New Zealander who were executed in 1998, supposedly in return for funding from Osama bin Laden. Another nephew of Barayev was killed in Chechnya later in the same year.

Since the first Chechen war erupted in 1994, Chechen and other Islamic militants have engaged in several bloody hostage-taking operations. One of the most notorious was the raid by Chechen militant leader Shamil Basaev on Budyonovsk Hospital, in the Stavropol region. More than 100 people died during Russian authorities' botched attempt to storm the building. Another incident was a raid by Chechen militant Salman Raduev on another hospital in Kizlyar, Dagestan; the captors were allowed to leave that hospital with their hostages but later were attacked by Russian army and special forces troops. In both cases, many hostages were killed.

The evolving situation in Moscow marks the largest hostage-taking since hostilities between Russians and Chechens erupted anew in August 1998.

The fact that the event is taking place in Moscow underscores Russia's vulnerability to militant attacks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin — who has earned a reputation for being tough on Islamists and militants and repeatedly has ruled out negotiations with Chechen separatists — well may issue orders for law enforcers to storm the Sharikopogshipnik theater. If so, high casualties are likely.

The case will have a direct impact on intensifying fighting in Chechnya. It also could lead to a cross-border raid into Georgia, which the Kremlin accuses of harboring Chechen militants and providing them a base from which to attack Russian targets. Georgia, however, listens to Washington, not Moscow — and it remains to be seen whether Washington allows Russia to retaliate.

Nevertheless, their shared exposure to militant attacks likely will foster even further cooperation between Russia and the United States on some issues.

Washington previously confirmed links between al Qaeda and the Chechen independence movement, and STRATFOR sources within the Russian foreign ministry say the latest development already is shaping Moscow's diplomatic strategy. They say Moscow will pressure Washington to refocus its efforts on al Qaeda and drop plans to attack Iraq. Few outside the Bush administration believe Iraq has substantial links to al Qaeda. Russia wants to emphasize that, in the aftermath of the Bali bombing and now the Moscow hostage situation, al Qaeda poses a clear and present danger to all countries.