Summary
A recent burst of diplomacy by North Korea is part of its preparation for talks with the United States set for later this fall. However, if relations remain sour between Washington and Pyongyang, North Korea also is preparing for a major diplomatic showdown with the United States next year — one that could rival the 1994 nuclear crisis.
Analysis
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will visit Pyongyang Sept. 17 to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, according to announcements made Aug. 30 by both governments. The news comes as North and South Korea jointly announced the results of their latest round of economic talks, which included setting a Sept. 18 start date for the resumption of work on an inter-Korean rail connection.
Also, South Korean and Japanese papers were rife with rumors that Kim may pay a visit to South Korea during the Asian Games sports event, which begins Sept. 29 in the southern port city of Pusan. But although contacts between North Korea and its neighbors appear to be progressing, Pyongyang recently has come under heightened criticism from U.S. officials like John Bolton, undersecretary of state for arms control, who said Aug. 29 that the country is "armed to the teeth" with weapons of mass destruction, JoongAng Ilbo daily reported.
The North's latest diplomatic push is meant to a large degree to prepare for expected high-level talks with Washington later this year. The government has laid out 2003 as a make-or-break year for North Korean-U.S. relations: It marks the 50th anniversary of the end of the Korean War, the end of Pyongyang's three-year self-imposed missile moratorium and is the proposed date of completion for two internationally financed light water nuclear reactors promised to North Korea in 1994 in exchange for a freeze on its nuclear program.
Pyongyang would prefer to use the leverage from its recent talks with Japan, South Korea and Russia to convince Washington to drastically alter its hostile North Korea policy. But if that proves impossible, "axis of evil" member Pyongyang is preparing the field for a major diplomatic showdown with the United States next year — one that, given Washington's current mood, could rival the 1994 nuclear "crisis," which nearly led to a U.S. pre-emptive strike on North Korean facilities.
Koizumi's announced visit to North Korea apparently came as a surprise to both South Korean and U.S. leaders. According to Japanese media reports, Koizumi called Washington and Seoul before announcing the trip. However, government officials cited by South Korean media said the conversation with Seoul lasted only 15 minutes and occurred just hours before the trip was made public.
This apparent lack of coordination already is causing some concern in South Korea, where an editorial in one conservative newspaper cautioned that Seoul, Tokyo and Washington needed to re-examine their trilateral coordination on North Korea, as Koizumi's announcement exposed a "serious disagreement" between the three nations over policy goals. This is just what North Korea is looking to do — exploit the differences between the U.S. allies.
For Pyongyang, relations with Japan and South Korea — and to some extent with Russia and China — are important in their own right but play into the much larger issue of U.S. ties. North Korea signed the armistice that ended the Korean War with Washington, not with Seoul, and it is toward Washington that much of Pyongyang's current diplomatic policy is geared. The North's ultimate goal is to have formal diplomatic ties with the United States, though Russian sources say that Pyongyang realizes this is a far-off proposition.
Shy of that, North Korean leaders want to see a summit between Kim and U.S. President George W. Bush. Although this is not likely, Pyongyang sees a potential analogy between Bush and his hard-line stance against North Korea and former U.S. President Richard Nixon and his ties with China. Pyongyang is hoping that, as only Nixon could go to China, only Bush can come to North Korea.
One North Korean source even suggested that Pyongyang believes that James Kelly, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for east Asian and Pacific affairs, who is expected to make a long-delayed trip to Pyongyang later this year, will bring a personal note from Bush and may help lay the groundwork for a potential summit meeting.
In the meantime, after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok Aug. 23, Kim will content himself by hosting Koizumi, whose visit will be the first of a Japanese prime minister to North Korea, and only the second by a prime minister to a country that Japan does not have formal diplomatic relations with. The first such visit was former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka's trip to China before the 1972 establishment of diplomatic relations.
For Pyongyang, hosting Koizumi is another notch in its diplomatic belt, perhaps even more symbolic than the visits by Putin in July 2000 or Chinese President Jiang Zemin in September 2001. Pyongyang will put on its best show for the visiting Japanese leader, trying to demonstrate to its people and the world that everyone — friend and foe alike — considers North Korea important.
For Koizumi, the visit is a calculated risk. On the one hand, it could raise his standing at home and abroad. On the other, North Korea could just as easily snub or embarrass the prime minister as offer him any diplomatic concessions over longstanding issues such as the alleged abduction of Japanese nationals and North Korea's demand for an apology and compensation for Japan's 1910-1945 occupation.
Running a country that was once on the leading edge of the global economy, and now is suffering from a long-term recession, has left Koizumi with little of Japan's former international leverage, and a visit to North Korea could raise his bargaining power in talks on other issues with the United States and South Korea. And with his domestic policies still stumbling along, the international exposure could boost his standing at home — or at least shift attention away from the pressing economic issues.
The day after Koizumi's visit to Pyongyang, North and South Korea will jointly restart construction to re-link the inter-Korean railway from Seoul, through the demilitarized zone, to Pyongyang and on to Shinuiju, on the North Korean border with China. Work is expected to be completed before the end of the year, while construction on an east coast rail link is slated for next year.
Russia has been a major motivator for North Korea's return to the project, as Moscow sees Seoul's participation as vital for any plans to revitalize Russia's Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR), which would link its trains to South Korea through North Korea and thus become the major transshipment rout for goods between East Asia and Europe.
While Moscow originally was pressing for the east coast link — only 10 miles of which have yet to be completed — to be the primary trunk line from South Korea to the TSR, further studies showed that nearly 190 miles of rail in North Korea needed refurbishing, according to the JoongAng Ilbo daily, making the west coast line a more viable option despite its links into China.
In addition to the rail links and several other economic and social projects, there is renewed speculation that Kim may finally make a reciprocal visit to South Korea, perhaps during the Asia Games. A large North Korean delegation of athletes, support staff and fans will attend the games, and a South Korean paper cited Japanese Foreign Ministry sources as saying Seoul and Pyongyang already were making arrangements for Kim's visit.
While the South Korean government denied any such preparations — even if Kim were coming, the announcement likely would be held off until the last minute — due to security concerns and the desire to avoid embarrassment should the North Korean leader fail to show up.
But South Korean and Japanese summits and regional economic cooperation are just part of Pyongyang's ultimate diplomatic goal, which is a new relationship with the United States. The government in Pyongyang has pointed repeatedly to the year 2003 as a vital one for ties with Washington, and there is little sign it is changing its mind.
The government is making renewed threats about its nuclear and long-range missile capabilities, such as its recent announcement that it is developing a new satellite. This has raised speculation that Pyongyang will attempt another satellite launch similar to its first attempt in 1998, when its rocket over flew Japan, causing an international crisis.
At the same time, North Korea is demonstrating a certain receptiveness to diplomatic and economic cooperation. The potential for a repeat of the international crisis over North Korea's nuclear program in 1993 and 1994, and the new round of diplomatic initiatives, are two halves of the same bargaining chip North Korea is currently playing to encourage the United States to take a new approach to relations, end sanctions and open the door for formal diplomatic ties.
And while some in Washington are offering encouraging remarks, others continue to remind the world that North Korea is in Bush's "axis of evil" for a reason — because the Pyongyang regime possesses and sells medium- and long-range ballistic missiles, maintains chemical and possibly biological weapons stocks and has the available plutonium to make at least one or two crude nuclear weapons.
Given the U.S. administration's current frustration with the international community over Iraq, and the ongoing fear of weapons of mass destruction getting into the hands of terrorists or other anti-U.S. elements, North Korea may find its initiatives rebuffed, or at least ignored. With Pyongyang exploiting the differences between Washington, Tokyo and Seoul, and calling on its former sponsor Russia for leverage, the North Korean leadership is preparing for either a new thaw in North Korean-U.S. relations or a new international confrontation.
A recent burst of diplomacy by North Korea is part of its preparation for talks with the United States set for later this fall. However, if relations remain sour between Washington and Pyongyang, North Korea also is preparing for a major diplomatic showdown with the United States next year — one that could rival the 1994 nuclear crisis.
Analysis
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will visit Pyongyang Sept. 17 to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, according to announcements made Aug. 30 by both governments. The news comes as North and South Korea jointly announced the results of their latest round of economic talks, which included setting a Sept. 18 start date for the resumption of work on an inter-Korean rail connection.
Also, South Korean and Japanese papers were rife with rumors that Kim may pay a visit to South Korea during the Asian Games sports event, which begins Sept. 29 in the southern port city of Pusan. But although contacts between North Korea and its neighbors appear to be progressing, Pyongyang recently has come under heightened criticism from U.S. officials like John Bolton, undersecretary of state for arms control, who said Aug. 29 that the country is "armed to the teeth" with weapons of mass destruction, JoongAng Ilbo daily reported.
The North's latest diplomatic push is meant to a large degree to prepare for expected high-level talks with Washington later this year. The government has laid out 2003 as a make-or-break year for North Korean-U.S. relations: It marks the 50th anniversary of the end of the Korean War, the end of Pyongyang's three-year self-imposed missile moratorium and is the proposed date of completion for two internationally financed light water nuclear reactors promised to North Korea in 1994 in exchange for a freeze on its nuclear program.
Pyongyang would prefer to use the leverage from its recent talks with Japan, South Korea and Russia to convince Washington to drastically alter its hostile North Korea policy. But if that proves impossible, "axis of evil" member Pyongyang is preparing the field for a major diplomatic showdown with the United States next year — one that, given Washington's current mood, could rival the 1994 nuclear "crisis," which nearly led to a U.S. pre-emptive strike on North Korean facilities.
Koizumi's announced visit to North Korea apparently came as a surprise to both South Korean and U.S. leaders. According to Japanese media reports, Koizumi called Washington and Seoul before announcing the trip. However, government officials cited by South Korean media said the conversation with Seoul lasted only 15 minutes and occurred just hours before the trip was made public.
This apparent lack of coordination already is causing some concern in South Korea, where an editorial in one conservative newspaper cautioned that Seoul, Tokyo and Washington needed to re-examine their trilateral coordination on North Korea, as Koizumi's announcement exposed a "serious disagreement" between the three nations over policy goals. This is just what North Korea is looking to do — exploit the differences between the U.S. allies.
For Pyongyang, relations with Japan and South Korea — and to some extent with Russia and China — are important in their own right but play into the much larger issue of U.S. ties. North Korea signed the armistice that ended the Korean War with Washington, not with Seoul, and it is toward Washington that much of Pyongyang's current diplomatic policy is geared. The North's ultimate goal is to have formal diplomatic ties with the United States, though Russian sources say that Pyongyang realizes this is a far-off proposition.
Shy of that, North Korean leaders want to see a summit between Kim and U.S. President George W. Bush. Although this is not likely, Pyongyang sees a potential analogy between Bush and his hard-line stance against North Korea and former U.S. President Richard Nixon and his ties with China. Pyongyang is hoping that, as only Nixon could go to China, only Bush can come to North Korea.
One North Korean source even suggested that Pyongyang believes that James Kelly, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for east Asian and Pacific affairs, who is expected to make a long-delayed trip to Pyongyang later this year, will bring a personal note from Bush and may help lay the groundwork for a potential summit meeting.
In the meantime, after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok Aug. 23, Kim will content himself by hosting Koizumi, whose visit will be the first of a Japanese prime minister to North Korea, and only the second by a prime minister to a country that Japan does not have formal diplomatic relations with. The first such visit was former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka's trip to China before the 1972 establishment of diplomatic relations.
For Pyongyang, hosting Koizumi is another notch in its diplomatic belt, perhaps even more symbolic than the visits by Putin in July 2000 or Chinese President Jiang Zemin in September 2001. Pyongyang will put on its best show for the visiting Japanese leader, trying to demonstrate to its people and the world that everyone — friend and foe alike — considers North Korea important.
For Koizumi, the visit is a calculated risk. On the one hand, it could raise his standing at home and abroad. On the other, North Korea could just as easily snub or embarrass the prime minister as offer him any diplomatic concessions over longstanding issues such as the alleged abduction of Japanese nationals and North Korea's demand for an apology and compensation for Japan's 1910-1945 occupation.
Running a country that was once on the leading edge of the global economy, and now is suffering from a long-term recession, has left Koizumi with little of Japan's former international leverage, and a visit to North Korea could raise his bargaining power in talks on other issues with the United States and South Korea. And with his domestic policies still stumbling along, the international exposure could boost his standing at home — or at least shift attention away from the pressing economic issues.
The day after Koizumi's visit to Pyongyang, North and South Korea will jointly restart construction to re-link the inter-Korean railway from Seoul, through the demilitarized zone, to Pyongyang and on to Shinuiju, on the North Korean border with China. Work is expected to be completed before the end of the year, while construction on an east coast rail link is slated for next year.
Russia has been a major motivator for North Korea's return to the project, as Moscow sees Seoul's participation as vital for any plans to revitalize Russia's Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR), which would link its trains to South Korea through North Korea and thus become the major transshipment rout for goods between East Asia and Europe.
While Moscow originally was pressing for the east coast link — only 10 miles of which have yet to be completed — to be the primary trunk line from South Korea to the TSR, further studies showed that nearly 190 miles of rail in North Korea needed refurbishing, according to the JoongAng Ilbo daily, making the west coast line a more viable option despite its links into China.
In addition to the rail links and several other economic and social projects, there is renewed speculation that Kim may finally make a reciprocal visit to South Korea, perhaps during the Asia Games. A large North Korean delegation of athletes, support staff and fans will attend the games, and a South Korean paper cited Japanese Foreign Ministry sources as saying Seoul and Pyongyang already were making arrangements for Kim's visit.
While the South Korean government denied any such preparations — even if Kim were coming, the announcement likely would be held off until the last minute — due to security concerns and the desire to avoid embarrassment should the North Korean leader fail to show up.
But South Korean and Japanese summits and regional economic cooperation are just part of Pyongyang's ultimate diplomatic goal, which is a new relationship with the United States. The government in Pyongyang has pointed repeatedly to the year 2003 as a vital one for ties with Washington, and there is little sign it is changing its mind.
The government is making renewed threats about its nuclear and long-range missile capabilities, such as its recent announcement that it is developing a new satellite. This has raised speculation that Pyongyang will attempt another satellite launch similar to its first attempt in 1998, when its rocket over flew Japan, causing an international crisis.
At the same time, North Korea is demonstrating a certain receptiveness to diplomatic and economic cooperation. The potential for a repeat of the international crisis over North Korea's nuclear program in 1993 and 1994, and the new round of diplomatic initiatives, are two halves of the same bargaining chip North Korea is currently playing to encourage the United States to take a new approach to relations, end sanctions and open the door for formal diplomatic ties.
And while some in Washington are offering encouraging remarks, others continue to remind the world that North Korea is in Bush's "axis of evil" for a reason — because the Pyongyang regime possesses and sells medium- and long-range ballistic missiles, maintains chemical and possibly biological weapons stocks and has the available plutonium to make at least one or two crude nuclear weapons.
Given the U.S. administration's current frustration with the international community over Iraq, and the ongoing fear of weapons of mass destruction getting into the hands of terrorists or other anti-U.S. elements, North Korea may find its initiatives rebuffed, or at least ignored. With Pyongyang exploiting the differences between Washington, Tokyo and Seoul, and calling on its former sponsor Russia for leverage, the North Korean leadership is preparing for either a new thaw in North Korean-U.S. relations or a new international confrontation.
