Summary
In what is being touted as a major defeat for Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party, independent candidate Hiroshi Nakada beat three-term incumbent and LDP member Hidenobu Takahide in the March 31 Yokohama mayoral race. Nakada's victory may be a defeat for the scandal-ridden LDP, but Koizumi could use the loss to strengthen his position within the party as a key voice of reform in the face of the obstinate old guard. The danger for Koizumi, however, is building a new support base on the backs of independent young ideologues whose own political loyalties shift like sand.
Analysis
Hiroshi Nakada, an independent candidate and three-term member of Japan's House of Representatives, defeated the three-term incumbent mayor of Yokohama in a March 31 upset by more than 21,000 votes.
Nakada campaigned on a platform of term limits for mayors, transparency in the city budgets and Yokohama's five trillion-yen debt. His opponent, ruling Liberal Democratic Party member Hidenobu Takahide, based his campaign on his 12 years of experience and a focus on ensuring security during the upcoming soccer World Cup.
Japanese media quickly termed Nakada's election a major defeat for Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's LDP, which is reeling from a series of scandals and public dissatisfaction with the party's economic programs. Although the LDP's popularity is certainly fading, Koizumi is trying to turn the loss into a personal gain by emphasizing that the election showed the Japanese people's desire for change. As the reform-minded maverick in the conservative LDP, Koizumi appears poised to turn this loss into a rallying cry for change, increasing pressure on the party's obdurate old-guard factions.
The entire world is watching to see if Tokyo can keep the globe's second-largest economy from going belly-up. Koizumi's campaign cry of "Change the LDP, Change Japan" raised hopes that he was the long-awaited reformer ready to tackle Japan's moss-covered political system and revive its mired economy. It has become apparent, however, that Koizumi's calls for reform do not extend to facilitating the socially painful economic restructuring Japan needs and so virulently dreads.
Koizumi's attempts to pressure the party into reforming are a dangerous strategy. Early on, his near cult-like status earned him popularity ratings in the 90 percent range, contrasting sharply with his predecessors. Yet Koizumi's administration has been characterized by incongruity, as he challenges the entrenched conservative leaders of the LDP, while simultaneously relying on their continued support to stay on top. In the past, Koizumi used intra-party intransigence to portray himself as an embattled reformer held in check by his own party. Now he is using the rise of independent young politicians to take another swipe at the old guard within his party.
Koizumi's veiled attacks on his own party are part of an attempt to reshape the LDP as his own. His economic reform ideas, including cutting back on redundant infrastructure construction and privatizing the national postal savings system, are as much directed at undercutting the support bases of longstanding LDP functionaries as they are on fixing Japan's economy. Instead, Koizumi has focused on his underlying agenda of restructuring Japan's Self Defense Forces and reshaping the nation's regional security role. Both processes are being accelerated by the U.S. war against terrorism.
For Koizumi, then, Nakada's victory may be a welcome event. Nakada is in many ways a perfect match for Koizumi. He is young — only 37 — but his track record is marked by reform and independent thinking. In 1992, he began his political career as secretary to Morihiro Hosokawa, the founder of the now-defunct Japan New Party, who was briefly Japan's prime minister. Hosokawa took his fledgling party to victory in 1993, breaking the LDP's 38-year hold on the government. Although the JNP's hold on power was brief, Nakada — who was elected to his first term in the House of Representatives in 1993 — continued to vocally advocate political reform in Japan.
In 1994, the JNP was folded into a new "super-party," the New Frontier Party, where Nakada served as vice minister for economic and fiscal policy in the NFP's shadow Cabinet. In 1996, he was elected to a second term in the House of Representatives, this time representing the eighth district of the Kanagawa prefecture. In 1997, when the NFP was rocked by scandal, Nakada was one of the leading voices for change, publicly calling for the ouster of then-party President Ichiro Ozawa.
During the NFP's troubles, Nakada flirted with leaving the party, meeting with a parliamentary faction leader who had left the NFP. Nakada also met with Koizumi, who was then health and welfare minister. Nakada chose not to join either the splinter NFP faction or the LDP but instead co-founded the Association of Independents, or Mushozoku no Kai. When the Democratic Party of Japan came along in 1998, it also sought Nakada's support but gained only his occasional cooperation, not his membership.
In June 2000, Nakada won his third term in the House of Representatives, beating LDP candidate and expected victor Kenji Eda. Nakada's campaign was noted for being modern, playing on the strengths of the Internet to tap younger voters. Nakada won the election with 44.5 percent of the vote, beating Eda's 26.9 percent. Yet despite his continued victories over LDP candidates, Nakada was one of a group of three opposition lawmakers who expressed public support in September 2001 for Koizumi's reform programs — including the privatization of the postal service and the privatization or abolition of public corporations.
In February, only halfway through his term, Nakada announced he would challenge three-term incumbent mayor Hidenobu Takahide in Yokohama, one of Japan's biggest cities. Takahide has the backing of three ruling coalition partners — the LDP, the New Komeito Party and the New Conservative Party — as well as the Social Democratic Party, whereas Nakada had no formal party support. Just days after announcing his candidacy, Nakada met with Koizumi and, according to the Japan Economic Newswire, announced that Koizumi was not afraid of publicly supporting his challenge to the 72-year old Takahide. Nakada soundly defeated Takahide to become the youngest mayor of one of Japan's 12 largest cities.
Nakada's victory in Yokohama is an ominous sign for the LDP, and Koizumi will again emphasize the need to sweep away the old guard in the LDP if the party is to survive. The LDP faces three key challenges in April: the Kyoto mayoral election and parliamentary bi-elections in Wakayama and Niigata Prefectures.
Yet Koizumi's tacit support for Nakada's campaign could backfire. Nakada's strength as a recognized political reformer and independent thinker is a mixed blessing at best. Although Nakada supports Koizumi's reform agenda and has demonstrated a fairly strong patriotic streak — in dealing with Japan's relations with China and Taiwan and in representing Japan's position to the International Whaling Commission — he is no pushover.
Koizumi risks placing his political future on shifting sands if he relies too heavily on the support of young, independent and reform-minded politicians like Nakada to replace the traditional party base of the LDP.
In what is being touted as a major defeat for Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party, independent candidate Hiroshi Nakada beat three-term incumbent and LDP member Hidenobu Takahide in the March 31 Yokohama mayoral race. Nakada's victory may be a defeat for the scandal-ridden LDP, but Koizumi could use the loss to strengthen his position within the party as a key voice of reform in the face of the obstinate old guard. The danger for Koizumi, however, is building a new support base on the backs of independent young ideologues whose own political loyalties shift like sand.
Analysis
Hiroshi Nakada, an independent candidate and three-term member of Japan's House of Representatives, defeated the three-term incumbent mayor of Yokohama in a March 31 upset by more than 21,000 votes.
Nakada campaigned on a platform of term limits for mayors, transparency in the city budgets and Yokohama's five trillion-yen debt. His opponent, ruling Liberal Democratic Party member Hidenobu Takahide, based his campaign on his 12 years of experience and a focus on ensuring security during the upcoming soccer World Cup.
Japanese media quickly termed Nakada's election a major defeat for Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's LDP, which is reeling from a series of scandals and public dissatisfaction with the party's economic programs. Although the LDP's popularity is certainly fading, Koizumi is trying to turn the loss into a personal gain by emphasizing that the election showed the Japanese people's desire for change. As the reform-minded maverick in the conservative LDP, Koizumi appears poised to turn this loss into a rallying cry for change, increasing pressure on the party's obdurate old-guard factions.
The entire world is watching to see if Tokyo can keep the globe's second-largest economy from going belly-up. Koizumi's campaign cry of "Change the LDP, Change Japan" raised hopes that he was the long-awaited reformer ready to tackle Japan's moss-covered political system and revive its mired economy. It has become apparent, however, that Koizumi's calls for reform do not extend to facilitating the socially painful economic restructuring Japan needs and so virulently dreads.
Koizumi's attempts to pressure the party into reforming are a dangerous strategy. Early on, his near cult-like status earned him popularity ratings in the 90 percent range, contrasting sharply with his predecessors. Yet Koizumi's administration has been characterized by incongruity, as he challenges the entrenched conservative leaders of the LDP, while simultaneously relying on their continued support to stay on top. In the past, Koizumi used intra-party intransigence to portray himself as an embattled reformer held in check by his own party. Now he is using the rise of independent young politicians to take another swipe at the old guard within his party.
Koizumi's veiled attacks on his own party are part of an attempt to reshape the LDP as his own. His economic reform ideas, including cutting back on redundant infrastructure construction and privatizing the national postal savings system, are as much directed at undercutting the support bases of longstanding LDP functionaries as they are on fixing Japan's economy. Instead, Koizumi has focused on his underlying agenda of restructuring Japan's Self Defense Forces and reshaping the nation's regional security role. Both processes are being accelerated by the U.S. war against terrorism.
For Koizumi, then, Nakada's victory may be a welcome event. Nakada is in many ways a perfect match for Koizumi. He is young — only 37 — but his track record is marked by reform and independent thinking. In 1992, he began his political career as secretary to Morihiro Hosokawa, the founder of the now-defunct Japan New Party, who was briefly Japan's prime minister. Hosokawa took his fledgling party to victory in 1993, breaking the LDP's 38-year hold on the government. Although the JNP's hold on power was brief, Nakada — who was elected to his first term in the House of Representatives in 1993 — continued to vocally advocate political reform in Japan.
In 1994, the JNP was folded into a new "super-party," the New Frontier Party, where Nakada served as vice minister for economic and fiscal policy in the NFP's shadow Cabinet. In 1996, he was elected to a second term in the House of Representatives, this time representing the eighth district of the Kanagawa prefecture. In 1997, when the NFP was rocked by scandal, Nakada was one of the leading voices for change, publicly calling for the ouster of then-party President Ichiro Ozawa.
During the NFP's troubles, Nakada flirted with leaving the party, meeting with a parliamentary faction leader who had left the NFP. Nakada also met with Koizumi, who was then health and welfare minister. Nakada chose not to join either the splinter NFP faction or the LDP but instead co-founded the Association of Independents, or Mushozoku no Kai. When the Democratic Party of Japan came along in 1998, it also sought Nakada's support but gained only his occasional cooperation, not his membership.
In June 2000, Nakada won his third term in the House of Representatives, beating LDP candidate and expected victor Kenji Eda. Nakada's campaign was noted for being modern, playing on the strengths of the Internet to tap younger voters. Nakada won the election with 44.5 percent of the vote, beating Eda's 26.9 percent. Yet despite his continued victories over LDP candidates, Nakada was one of a group of three opposition lawmakers who expressed public support in September 2001 for Koizumi's reform programs — including the privatization of the postal service and the privatization or abolition of public corporations.
In February, only halfway through his term, Nakada announced he would challenge three-term incumbent mayor Hidenobu Takahide in Yokohama, one of Japan's biggest cities. Takahide has the backing of three ruling coalition partners — the LDP, the New Komeito Party and the New Conservative Party — as well as the Social Democratic Party, whereas Nakada had no formal party support. Just days after announcing his candidacy, Nakada met with Koizumi and, according to the Japan Economic Newswire, announced that Koizumi was not afraid of publicly supporting his challenge to the 72-year old Takahide. Nakada soundly defeated Takahide to become the youngest mayor of one of Japan's 12 largest cities.
Nakada's victory in Yokohama is an ominous sign for the LDP, and Koizumi will again emphasize the need to sweep away the old guard in the LDP if the party is to survive. The LDP faces three key challenges in April: the Kyoto mayoral election and parliamentary bi-elections in Wakayama and Niigata Prefectures.
Yet Koizumi's tacit support for Nakada's campaign could backfire. Nakada's strength as a recognized political reformer and independent thinker is a mixed blessing at best. Although Nakada supports Koizumi's reform agenda and has demonstrated a fairly strong patriotic streak — in dealing with Japan's relations with China and Taiwan and in representing Japan's position to the International Whaling Commission — he is no pushover.
Koizumi risks placing his political future on shifting sands if he relies too heavily on the support of young, independent and reform-minded politicians like Nakada to replace the traditional party base of the LDP.
