Summary

The historic 1998 Good Friday Agreement that brought Protestant, pro-unionists together with Catholic republicans in a joint government is headed for collapse. Paramilitary groups such as the Real IRA will use the breakdown of the agreement as justification for re-arming themselves and increasing organized crime and the illegal arms trade in Northern Ireland.

Analysis

On Aug. 14, the Irish Republican Army withdrew its week-old arms decommissioning proposal that had spawned international hopes of salvaging the peace process in Northern Ireland.

With the power-sharing government on the brink of collapse and hard-liners in both the republican and unionist camps gaining ground, Anglo-Irish efforts to save the historic 1998 Good Friday Agreement are headed for failure. London will likely re-establish direct rule in Northern Ireland before the end of the year.

More violence is likely to follow. Paramilitary groups such as the Real IRA will use the breakdown of the Good Friday Agreement as justification for re-arming themselves and increasing organized crime and the illegal arms trade in Northern Ireland. The Real IRA may also ramp up its ongoing terrorism campaign in England. An end to "the Troubles," which have claimed 3,600 lives during the past 28 years and relegated Northern Ireland to an impoverished backwater, seems as far away as ever.

The Good Friday Agreement brought Protestant, pro-Britain unionists into an historic power-sharing government with Catholic republicans, who favor a united Ireland. In May 2000, the IRA had pledged for the first time to decommission, or put its weapons "completely and verifiably beyond use," but since has missed two deadlines to physically begin the process. The Good Friday peace process was thrown into chaos on July 1, when Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble resigned as first minister of the home-rule government to protest the lack of progress on arms decommissioning.

London and Dublin presented a peace plan in late July that met several republican demands, including reform of the Protestant-dominated police force and a reduction of the British military presence. The IRA appeared to reciprocate with the arms decommissioning proposal, which the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD) accepted on Aug. 7. Trimble and the unionists, however, dismissed the plan as rhetoric and demanded immediate action on decommissioning.

The effort would be extensive. British security forces estimate republicans control three tons of Semtex high explosive; more than 1,000 rifles, 600 handguns and 1 million rounds of ammunition; 40 rocket grenade launchers and an unknown number of ground-to-air missiles, The Guardian reported on Aug. 7. Irish police say most of the IRA's arsenal is hidden underground in the Republic of Ireland, according to the Associated Press. Unionist paramilitary groups are thought to control far fewer weapons, including 80 machine guns, 75 rifles and 675 pistols.

The unionist's dismissal of the IICD plan, along with Britain's one-day suspension of government on Aug. 10 to buy more negotiating time, infuriated republicans and led to the withdrawal of the decommissioning proposal.

The republican response plays directly into the hands of the hard-line unionists, who believe the IRA never truly intended to disarm and was only trying to coerce concessions from Britain and the unionists. Unionists also point to the emergence of the Real IRA, as well as the apparent continuation of illicit IRA activity, in staking out their negotiating position.

The Real IRA is a splinter group formed in 1997 by IRA defectors who opposed the IRA's support of a negotiated settlement. Though its membership is estimated to be only 150 people, many are experienced terrorists and bomb-makers, according to the BBC. Since the IRA agreed to a cease-fire in 1997, the Real IRA has been the primary source of armed resistance to British rule, including the largest single act of terrorist violence in Northern Ireland in 30 years — the August 1998 bombing in Omagh that killed 29 people.

The Real IRA appears to be increasingly active in arms smuggling. The group has stolen weapons from IRA stockpiles and has likely acquired arms from Yugoslavia, The Sunday London Telegraph reported last Sept. 22. British intelligence also infiltrated the group, revealing "shopping trips" to the United States for rifles and bomb-making equipment, London's Sunday Times reported on April 15.

The more mainstream IRA also has been implicated in illicit activity since the Good Friday accords. The IRA was linked to an arms-smuggling operation uncovered in the United States in July 1999, the Sunday Times reported. The nonprofit Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reported last December that there is "compelling evidence that the IRA and its radical offshoot, the Real IRA, are involved in an unholy alliance with the Middle Eastern narcotics industry."

Also, three suspected IRA members traveling under false passports were recently detained in Bogota, Colombia, on suspicions of aiding Colombia's primary guerilla organization, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Though a direct connection to the current IRA hasn't been established, the BBC speculated on Aug. 14 that the IRA could be attracted to the FARC's large arsenal or its drug- and hostage-based financing capabilities.

Meanwhile, Protestant paramilitaries are also using drug profits to finance their operations, according to the CSIS report.

Failure of unionist demands for immediate progress on decommissioning will mean that Trimble will be unable to gather sufficient unionist support within the assembly to return to power. This gives Britain two choices: call for new elections, which analysts consider highly unlikely considering the polarized electorate, or suspend home rule indefinitely and re-impose direct rule from London.

Such a move would play into the hands of hard-liners on both sides, who could blame the other side for the breakdown while using the impasse to attract more support and — when needed — to justify more terrorism.