Summary
Egypt is speeding up the pace of its missile program, but this time the impetus may be Libya, rather than Israel. Egypt's reaction is part of a broader regional trend. As Libya emerges from the U.S.-imposed sanctions regime, the rest of North Africa is shifting to counter a potential security threat from Tripoli.
Analysis
Egypt is increasing efforts to deploy medium-range ballistic missiles, but for once Cairo doesn't seem to be worried about Israel. Instead, there are signs Egypt and its neighbors in North Africa are preparing for the day that Libya slips out from the sanctions the United States imposed in 1996 for Libya's terrorist sponsorship. Oddly enough, Libya's re-emergence as a regional power may stabilize North Africa: Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco are all moving to counter Tripoli.
Over the past several years, Libya has shed much of its image as a rogue nation and terrorist threat. As a result, United Nations has dropped sanctions, and other sanctions are eroding quickly. Even the United States may soften its opposition to foreign investment in Libya's oil industry. The White House is pressing Congress to extend sanctions by two years, rather than five, Reuters reported June 5.
Under sanctions, Libya had to restrain its spending and behavior. Although Libyans enjoy a high standard of living compared with the rest of the African continent, sanctions have kept defense spending down. More important, Libya had to be on its best behavior. But sometime in the next two to five years, the United States will likely drop its sanctions, and Libya will enjoy a surge of cash and more freedom of action.
Egypt, meanwhile, appears to be stepping up the pace of its ballistic missile program. Between 50 and 300 North Korean technicians are in Egypt working on medium-range Nodong missiles, United Press International reported June 18. Egypt already deploys Scud-B and Project-T missiles that can hit Israel, according to the Center for Defense and International Security Studies (CDISS), a British think tank. Cairo is also attempting to acquire hi-tech engines for the North Korean-produced Nodong missile system.
The Nodong has a much greater range, up to 800 miles more, than is necessary to hit Israel. The Egyptian military may simply want to station its missiles farther inside its borders and away from potential Israeli air strikes. Or the missiles may be meant to counter a future security threat from Libya.
Relations between Cairo and Tripoli are good right now; the two are even working together to mediate the border conflict between Uganda and Sudan. But both aspire to be North Africa's economic and political leader.
Libya has not been — and will not become — a major threat to Egypt. Its population of 5 million supports an army of only 45,000, according to the news agency Periscope. That's not big, compared with Egypt's 62 million citizens and 320,000 soldiers.
But Libya does have an arsenal of Scud B and Scud C missiles, both of which can hit Egypt, according to the CDISS. The country produced more than 100 tons of nerve gas in the 1980s, according to the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, and has continued efforts to acquire biological weapons, according to unclassified CIA reports.
Libya has also maintained an aggressive foreign policy, positioning itself as a regional leader in Africa. Foreign aid, leadership summits and support for various rebel groups have given Libya a fair amount of influence across the continent.
Besides Egypt, several other Libyan neighbors also appear to be gearing up for future security problems. Algeria is buying military hardware, including Sukhoi Su-24 MK bombers and MiG-29 fighters, and is looking to upgrade its two Russian-built Kilo-class subs.
Activity on the diplomatic front is intensifying as well. Algerian and Tunisian Foreign Ministries are discussing plans to develop joint training and military exercises, and Egypt and Algeria are discussing cooperation in counter-terrorism and intelligence sharing. Algeria is trying to secure its western border by smoothing over relations with long-time rival Morocco. The Algerian government is also increasing military-to-military contacts with the United States through high-level visits and talks.
Egypt is speeding up the pace of its missile program, but this time the impetus may be Libya, rather than Israel. Egypt's reaction is part of a broader regional trend. As Libya emerges from the U.S.-imposed sanctions regime, the rest of North Africa is shifting to counter a potential security threat from Tripoli.
Analysis
Egypt is increasing efforts to deploy medium-range ballistic missiles, but for once Cairo doesn't seem to be worried about Israel. Instead, there are signs Egypt and its neighbors in North Africa are preparing for the day that Libya slips out from the sanctions the United States imposed in 1996 for Libya's terrorist sponsorship. Oddly enough, Libya's re-emergence as a regional power may stabilize North Africa: Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco are all moving to counter Tripoli.
Over the past several years, Libya has shed much of its image as a rogue nation and terrorist threat. As a result, United Nations has dropped sanctions, and other sanctions are eroding quickly. Even the United States may soften its opposition to foreign investment in Libya's oil industry. The White House is pressing Congress to extend sanctions by two years, rather than five, Reuters reported June 5.
Under sanctions, Libya had to restrain its spending and behavior. Although Libyans enjoy a high standard of living compared with the rest of the African continent, sanctions have kept defense spending down. More important, Libya had to be on its best behavior. But sometime in the next two to five years, the United States will likely drop its sanctions, and Libya will enjoy a surge of cash and more freedom of action.
Egypt, meanwhile, appears to be stepping up the pace of its ballistic missile program. Between 50 and 300 North Korean technicians are in Egypt working on medium-range Nodong missiles, United Press International reported June 18. Egypt already deploys Scud-B and Project-T missiles that can hit Israel, according to the Center for Defense and International Security Studies (CDISS), a British think tank. Cairo is also attempting to acquire hi-tech engines for the North Korean-produced Nodong missile system.
The Nodong has a much greater range, up to 800 miles more, than is necessary to hit Israel. The Egyptian military may simply want to station its missiles farther inside its borders and away from potential Israeli air strikes. Or the missiles may be meant to counter a future security threat from Libya.
Relations between Cairo and Tripoli are good right now; the two are even working together to mediate the border conflict between Uganda and Sudan. But both aspire to be North Africa's economic and political leader.
Libya has not been — and will not become — a major threat to Egypt. Its population of 5 million supports an army of only 45,000, according to the news agency Periscope. That's not big, compared with Egypt's 62 million citizens and 320,000 soldiers.
But Libya does have an arsenal of Scud B and Scud C missiles, both of which can hit Egypt, according to the CDISS. The country produced more than 100 tons of nerve gas in the 1980s, according to the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, and has continued efforts to acquire biological weapons, according to unclassified CIA reports.
Libya has also maintained an aggressive foreign policy, positioning itself as a regional leader in Africa. Foreign aid, leadership summits and support for various rebel groups have given Libya a fair amount of influence across the continent.
Besides Egypt, several other Libyan neighbors also appear to be gearing up for future security problems. Algeria is buying military hardware, including Sukhoi Su-24 MK bombers and MiG-29 fighters, and is looking to upgrade its two Russian-built Kilo-class subs.
Activity on the diplomatic front is intensifying as well. Algerian and Tunisian Foreign Ministries are discussing plans to develop joint training and military exercises, and Egypt and Algeria are discussing cooperation in counter-terrorism and intelligence sharing. Algeria is trying to secure its western border by smoothing over relations with long-time rival Morocco. The Algerian government is also increasing military-to-military contacts with the United States through high-level visits and talks.
