The collision between a U.S. Navy surveillance plane and a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea caps a recent increase in tensions between the two nations that has led Beijing to become more aggressive when routinely interdicting U.S. aircraft in the region. The U.S. Navy EP-3E Aries II is a four-engine, propeller-driven aircraft outfitted with high-tech eavesdropping equipment to intercept radio transmissions and other communications signals. The aircraft made an emergency landing at the Lingshui naval airbase on China's Hainan Island in the South China Sea after colliding with one of two Jian-8 fighters dispatched to intercept it. Surveillance flights by U.S. intelligence aircraft along the Chinese coast are routine, and just as routinely, Chinese aircraft fly up to monitor them. But most of these intercepts have taken the Chinese jets only within visual range of the U.S. planes. The collision suggests the Chinese have deviated from a long-standing script. As the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) operates much like other air forces shaped by the old Soviet Union, it is unlikely the Jian-8 pilots were freelancing, flying closer than normal on their own. The PLAAF relies on a highly centralized command-and-control system to direct its combat aircraft. And the pilots involved in the collision are likely to have received direct orders to fly closer - and possibly more aggressively - against the spy plane than has been routine. It does not appear the U.S. surveillance flight was listening in on any unusual Chinese military activity. But there are reasons to discount elements in the countries' official stories. Publicly, the U.S. Pacific Command has played down the collision, saying it was an accident that occurred over international waters. It appears more likely the U.S. aircraft was operating within the 200-mile coastal exclusionary zone claimed by China, but not recognized internationally and certainly not recognized by Washington. The Chinese government blamed the American crew - also implausible. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Baozao said, "The crash of the Chinese fighter directly resulted from the sudden turnover and run-in of the U.S. plane, which is against flight rule." The ungainly aircraft is not capable of swift maneuvers - unless the Chinese jets were uncomfortably close.
A Departure From the Norm
As an air force patterned on the old Soviet Air Force, the PLAAF relies heavily on ground control to direct the movement of its combat aircraft. While there are naval and other military facilities in the vicinity of the incident, it appears the Jian-8s were based in Guangzhou Military Region as part of the PLAAF contingent there. These aircraft have routinely flown up to check out the American surveillance aircraft that operate in the area, flying from a base in Okinawa. In general, these incidents have resembled the intercepts of the Cold War, in which opposing aircraft fly into visual range of one another - just to let the other side know they are being watched. Previous intercepts over the South China Sea have been similarly routine; one in three flights have been intercepted, according to U.S. sources. The way the Chinese pilots fly has changed, too. The damage to the EP-3E, shown in a photo taken in China, indicates the nose and left wing are damaged. This information also was made public by Zhu, the foreign ministry spokesman. Such damage suggests the larger reconnaissance plane clipped one of the fighters, either as the fighter was attempting to buzz the aircraft from behind or as it edged in on the EP-3E flying in very close formation. Either way, the Chinese pilots were suddenly much closer than the script had previously allowed. In addition, the U.S. Pacific Command has complained through the U.S. embassy in Beijing that Chinese aircraft have increasingly taken unnecessary and unsafe actions when tracking American military aircraft. The Political Rationale
It is unclear yet whether the Chinese pilots had clearance to change tactics from their regional commanders in the province or from the PLA in Beijing - or from the central government. With its highly regional structure, the PLA leadership is highly balkanized and it is possible certain elements within the military wish to signal displeasure either with the American flights or growing too close to the new Bush administration. It does not seem likely, however, that the central government purposefully cleared the increasingly aggressive flights of Chinese pilots. But there may be a divided opinion in Beijing. In the near term, it seems unlikely the incident will cause a major rupture in U.S.-Chinese ties. True, relations are strained over a variety of issues, including Washington's consideration of selling Aegis anti-missile destroyers to Taipei, U.S. criticism of China's human rights as Beijing bids to host the 2008 Olympics and the detention of U.S. academics by China. In such an environment, a prolonged standoff and a failure to reach a quick resolution could raise tensions to the highest level since 1996 when the United States dispatched two aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Straits when Chinese military exercises threatened Taiwan. If Washington decides to make a show of force to Beijing in this case, the USS Kitty Hawk (CV 63) is just a few days sail from Hainan in the South China Sea, and the USS Constellation (CV 64) is in the South Pacific after a recent visit to Hawaii. But it is unlikely to come to that. The collision, while adding to ongoing tensions, will not significantly change the balance of relations between China and the United States. Neither side wants - nor is China prepared for - a military conflict. Washington and Beijing will seek to diplomatically solve the standoff while saving face. Both Washington and Beijing are carefully weighing their next actions. Washington is already seeking to downplay the incident, claiming it was simply an accident. In Beijing, China's leaders want as much political leverage as possible out of the incident without admitting responsibility or that it may have been an accident. They will likely pursue a course similar to that after the U.S. bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, criticizing U.S. hegemony while petitioning for reparations and the full diplomatic attention of the United States. Hard-liners in China play this up as unrestrained U.S. hegemony, and their Washington counterparts will declare the event as another example of the growing China threat. Though not in itself a definitive event, the mid-air collision does little to soften the ratcheting of tensions across the Pacific. The Intelligence Question
China now has in its custody one of the United States' most sensitive intelligence-gathering platforms. Its contents and crew could, if they remain in Chinese custody, reveal the methods used to intercept Chinese military communications, something that has apparently been easy for the United States to do. Whether or not the crew had time to disable the equipment and destroy data before landing will tell whether an important U.S. intelligence platform has been compromised. According to military officials, the U.S. Navy operates 11 EP-3Es around the world. While technical and operational details of the aircraft are closely held, their mission is unique: monitor military radar systems, listen in on military communications traffic and intercept other signals intelligence (SIGINT) that could provide information on the Chinese military. It is unlikely China will have had time to conduct a thorough search of the aircraft, its onboard systems and sensitive intelligence data. Nevertheless, depending on how long the standoff lasts, China could learn some key information about some of the methods the aircraft and crew used to gather information, compromising future U.S. SIGINT operations.
