Over the week of Dec. 10, testimony from Mykola Melnychenko - a former guard for Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma - to the parliament implicated Kuchma in the death of a local journalist. He claimed Kuchma ordered some of his closest advisors to arrange the death of journalist Georgy Gongadze.
Opposition Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz heads a parliamentary investigation against Kuchma and his advisors. Moroz's goal to rally parliamentary members against Kuchma may form stronger political blocs, weakening Kuchma's power over the government. This bloc formation will alter the way Kuchma deals with the Ukrainian parliament.
The Ukrainian parliament, the Rada, is wracked by infighting, both between opposing parties and parties that supposedly form supportive coalitions. Several factions are composed of more than a dozen parties. Individual parties often leave or switch coalitions, altering the balance of power in the Rada. This confusion allows Kuchma to control the country with an authoritative hand, a situation Moroz would like to change.
In November, Kuchma placed himself in charge of Ukraine's energy complex - the most controversial sector of Ukraine's economy - taking regulatory power away from the government. The energy issue regularly divides parliament, as many members represent competing factions in Ukraine's business community. Parties start looking for someone to blame when another pipeline deal bypasses Ukraine or if one of their oil refineries falls into Russian hands. Some attack the president, others attack the prime minister and still others blame the Energy Ministry for Ukraine's economic troubles.
As long as the Rada members fight, Kuchma effectively will control the nation and make crucial decisions on his own. According to a BBC report Nov.24, Kuchma stated every member of parliament wanted to be at the pinnacle of the “power pyramid,” making the implementation of referendum results painful. If the parliament tried to take control of the government from Kuchma in its present state, the resulting power struggles, increased confusion and political turmoil would only jeopardize Ukraine's efforts at securing Western support, both financial and political.
The controversy and scandal surrounding Kuchma serve one political purpose, recognized by opposition leader Moroz. He can use the issues to unite opposition parties on one common position: their opposition to Kuchma. The timing is right, as Kuchma's recent losses in the energy sector already have fanned the flames of controversy and dissent. In October, Russia and the European Union signed a pipeline deal to transport gas west through Poland, thus bypassing the Ukraine. Furthermore, Ukraine has lost some of its most valuable industries to Russia in recent months, such as the Oriana petrochemical holding, in Kuchma-backed privatization deals. In fact, the opposition parties have already begun to unite, passing a parliamentary vote Dec. 15 calling to dismiss several officials allegedly linked to the murder of the journalist.
As the Rada's opposition parties unite, the parties forming the shaky government majority coalitions will rally together as well, mostly to present a strong front against the increased power of an opposition coalition. The next parliamentary elections are in 2003, and Moroz, who ran against Kuchma in 1999, is expected to run in the 2004 presidential elections.
The formation of unified blocs changes the dynamics of the parliament and will alter Kuchma's relationship with the parties. He can court individual parties on an issue-by-issue basis now, offering concessions in return for legislative support. In the future, he will have to deal with a strong opposition front in the Rada, one he will not be able to buy off. At the same time, Kuchma will have to make concessions to the groups that rally behind him as a coalition, to keep him in power and support him against a parliamentary opposition.
Opposition Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz heads a parliamentary investigation against Kuchma and his advisors. Moroz's goal to rally parliamentary members against Kuchma may form stronger political blocs, weakening Kuchma's power over the government. This bloc formation will alter the way Kuchma deals with the Ukrainian parliament.
The Ukrainian parliament, the Rada, is wracked by infighting, both between opposing parties and parties that supposedly form supportive coalitions. Several factions are composed of more than a dozen parties. Individual parties often leave or switch coalitions, altering the balance of power in the Rada. This confusion allows Kuchma to control the country with an authoritative hand, a situation Moroz would like to change.
In November, Kuchma placed himself in charge of Ukraine's energy complex - the most controversial sector of Ukraine's economy - taking regulatory power away from the government. The energy issue regularly divides parliament, as many members represent competing factions in Ukraine's business community. Parties start looking for someone to blame when another pipeline deal bypasses Ukraine or if one of their oil refineries falls into Russian hands. Some attack the president, others attack the prime minister and still others blame the Energy Ministry for Ukraine's economic troubles.
As long as the Rada members fight, Kuchma effectively will control the nation and make crucial decisions on his own. According to a BBC report Nov.24, Kuchma stated every member of parliament wanted to be at the pinnacle of the “power pyramid,” making the implementation of referendum results painful. If the parliament tried to take control of the government from Kuchma in its present state, the resulting power struggles, increased confusion and political turmoil would only jeopardize Ukraine's efforts at securing Western support, both financial and political.
The controversy and scandal surrounding Kuchma serve one political purpose, recognized by opposition leader Moroz. He can use the issues to unite opposition parties on one common position: their opposition to Kuchma. The timing is right, as Kuchma's recent losses in the energy sector already have fanned the flames of controversy and dissent. In October, Russia and the European Union signed a pipeline deal to transport gas west through Poland, thus bypassing the Ukraine. Furthermore, Ukraine has lost some of its most valuable industries to Russia in recent months, such as the Oriana petrochemical holding, in Kuchma-backed privatization deals. In fact, the opposition parties have already begun to unite, passing a parliamentary vote Dec. 15 calling to dismiss several officials allegedly linked to the murder of the journalist.
As the Rada's opposition parties unite, the parties forming the shaky government majority coalitions will rally together as well, mostly to present a strong front against the increased power of an opposition coalition. The next parliamentary elections are in 2003, and Moroz, who ran against Kuchma in 1999, is expected to run in the 2004 presidential elections.
The formation of unified blocs changes the dynamics of the parliament and will alter Kuchma's relationship with the parties. He can court individual parties on an issue-by-issue basis now, offering concessions in return for legislative support. In the future, he will have to deal with a strong opposition front in the Rada, one he will not be able to buy off. At the same time, Kuchma will have to make concessions to the groups that rally behind him as a coalition, to keep him in power and support him against a parliamentary opposition.
