The military's removal of Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif raises questions of Pakistan's relations with its neighbors and allies, in particular India and the United States. For India, any sudden shift of power in Pakistan threatens to disrupt the tenuous peace along the shared Kashmir border. Following the early signs of moves by the Pakistani military today, India ordered its troops in Kashmir on high alert. However, while the military in Pakistan has at least temporary control, it is not likely that the current regime shift will result in a resumption of hostilities with India. It may instead lead to a more stable Pakistan.
The clashes this spring between India and Pakistan in Kashmir led to an interesting shift in international attitudes toward the two South Asian nations. Despite frequent denials, Pakistan was seen as the aggressor, backing Muslim militants who held positions on the Indian side of the Line of Control (LOC). Traditional backers of Pakistan, including China and the United States, took a hard-line approach against Pakistan in the conflict, suggesting that maintaining regional stability took precedence over traditional alliances.
Pressure from the United States led to Sharif's call for the militants' withdrawal from Indian controlled Kashmir, a move that seriously weakened Sharif's standing in Pakistan. Since July, Sharif has been shuttling between factions in Pakistan in an attempt to shore up power, but in doing so only further alienated himself from any supporters. The greater instability of Sharif's government following the Kashmir crisis has been further augmented by consistent rumors of planned coups. The weakened condition of the Pakistani government was in itself a threat to regional stability.
The chance of an accidental renewal of conflict with India decreases with the military takeover of power and removal of Sharif. The Pakistani military realizes the fundamental difference in size and strength between Pakistan and India and has little desire to go to war with India over Kashmir. The Pakistani military will defend its interests, but it will not make an aggressive move at this time. This means, in the short term, India must wait to see who will take power in Pakistan; in the longer term, the added stability will decrease the chances for a cross-border action.
The United States has taken an extremely cautious approach to the moves in Pakistan. The United States is not likely to take drastic steps against the new regime, though it has made made clear it does not condone a military coup and has called for a swift return to a democratic government. The strategic importance of Pakistan in South Asian stability necessitates continued U.S. involvement. In addition, Pakistan's recent standing as a nuclear power also influences continued U.S. cooperation with Pakistan.
Internally, the military is playing to nationalistic sentiments, declaring Gen. Pervez Musharraf a hero of the Kargil conflict in news reports. In Musharraf's speech to the nation, he stated clearly that military actions were made to stabilize Pakistan. While in the short term there will be confusion and tension as neighbors and allies of Pakistan await news of the shape of the new regime, Sharif's removal appears to offer the prospect of a more stable government.[More Pakistani coup analysis]
The clashes this spring between India and Pakistan in Kashmir led to an interesting shift in international attitudes toward the two South Asian nations. Despite frequent denials, Pakistan was seen as the aggressor, backing Muslim militants who held positions on the Indian side of the Line of Control (LOC). Traditional backers of Pakistan, including China and the United States, took a hard-line approach against Pakistan in the conflict, suggesting that maintaining regional stability took precedence over traditional alliances.
Pressure from the United States led to Sharif's call for the militants' withdrawal from Indian controlled Kashmir, a move that seriously weakened Sharif's standing in Pakistan. Since July, Sharif has been shuttling between factions in Pakistan in an attempt to shore up power, but in doing so only further alienated himself from any supporters. The greater instability of Sharif's government following the Kashmir crisis has been further augmented by consistent rumors of planned coups. The weakened condition of the Pakistani government was in itself a threat to regional stability.
The chance of an accidental renewal of conflict with India decreases with the military takeover of power and removal of Sharif. The Pakistani military realizes the fundamental difference in size and strength between Pakistan and India and has little desire to go to war with India over Kashmir. The Pakistani military will defend its interests, but it will not make an aggressive move at this time. This means, in the short term, India must wait to see who will take power in Pakistan; in the longer term, the added stability will decrease the chances for a cross-border action.
The United States has taken an extremely cautious approach to the moves in Pakistan. The United States is not likely to take drastic steps against the new regime, though it has made made clear it does not condone a military coup and has called for a swift return to a democratic government. The strategic importance of Pakistan in South Asian stability necessitates continued U.S. involvement. In addition, Pakistan's recent standing as a nuclear power also influences continued U.S. cooperation with Pakistan.
Internally, the military is playing to nationalistic sentiments, declaring Gen. Pervez Musharraf a hero of the Kargil conflict in news reports. In Musharraf's speech to the nation, he stated clearly that military actions were made to stabilize Pakistan. While in the short term there will be confusion and tension as neighbors and allies of Pakistan await news of the shape of the new regime, Sharif's removal appears to offer the prospect of a more stable government.[More Pakistani coup analysis]
