Summary
The UN has moved closer to opening an international tribunal into crimes against humanity by the Khmer Rouge, with backing from Cambodian Premier Hun Sen and Thailand. This international pressure on the rebels would be unenforceable and thus meaningless, but for recent events that suggest the Khmer Rouge may be weakening militarily as well. There have been rumors of the death of Khmer Rouge leader Khieu Samphan, though these have been quickly denied by both the Thai and Cambodian governments. Additionally, moves are under way to reintegrate breakaway Royalist troops into the Cambodian Royal Armed Forces (CRAF). With the December ASEAN summit scheduled to decide on Cambodia's entry into the association, Hun Sen is moving very cautiously to keep order, making this the one time certain breakaway military supporters of Prince Ranariddh may be able to safely leave the field. All of this points to a renewed CRAF, with new intelligence on Khmer Rouge locations and weaknesses delivered by the Royalist troops who were recently fighting side by side with the rebels. Altogether, the up-and-down fortunes of the Khmer Rouge look once again to be heading down.
Analysis
Recent events in Cambodia suggest that the up-and-down fortunes of the Khmer Rouge may once again be heading down. A United Nations team has arrived to investigate Khmer Rouge actions and prepare for a possible international tribunal to bring the remaining leaders to justice, with Premier Hun Sen offering full cooperation in the investigations. The UN investigating team is also planning to ask Thailand to cooperate and not shield Khmer Rouge leaders. At the same time, rumors of the death of rebel leader Khieu Samphan have spread, though they have been denied by the Cambodian and Thai governments. Finally, with agreement on a coalition government now in place, steps are under way to reintegrate breakaway Royalist troops loyal to Prince Norodom Ranariddh into the Cambodian Royal Armed Forces (CRAF), giving the CRAF access to extremely useful inside intelligence on Khmer Rouge bases and activities.
The history of the Khmer Rouge has been marked by a series of ups and downs, as allegiances were made and broken. A major split in the group between pro-Chinese and pro-Vietnamese factions resulted in the defection of then-Field Commander Hun Sen to Vietnam in 1977. The ensuing Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia succeeded in ousting the Khmer Rouge from power. The Khmer Rouge suffered another setback when former Deputy Prime Minister Ieng Sary defected to the government in 1996. When Hun Sen staged a coup against his co-Premier Prince Ranariddh in 1997, a large faction of the CRAF loyal to the prince broke off and joined with Khmer Rouge rebels in the northwest. The death of Pol Pot in April brought renewed international focus to the Khmer Rouge, and an effort was made to bring the remaining Khmer Rouge leaders to justice.
This past weekend, a UN team arrived in Phnom Penh to begin laying the groundwork for an international tribunal to try Khmer Rouge leaders for crimes against humanity covering the period 1975-79. Premier Hun Sen has announced his "full cooperation" to the tribunal, but has not yet laid out any conditions for his cooperation. Hun Sen is most interested in bringing the three remaining heads of the Khmer Rouge, Ta Mok, Nuon Chea, and Khieu Samphan, out of the jungles to once-and-for-all eradicate the rebel group. This would constitute a major victory for Hun Sen, who was instrumental in removing his former allies from power in 1979. The investigative team will also hold talks with Thailand and China regarding the possible formation of a tribunal. In Thailand, the team will ask for Thai assistance in capturing any fugitive heads of the Khmer Rouge in Thai territory as well as finding ways to prevent the flight of rebels through Thailand. The team will hold talks with the Chinese government to try and persuade China not to block UN actions to form the tribunal.
At the same time that the UN investigators were beginning operations in Cambodia, news of the death of Khmer Rouge leader Khieu Samphan was announced. Although this news was quickly denied by the Thai and Cambodian governments, and by former Khmer Rouge leaders, its timing does not bode well for the rebel group. Even if he is still alive, it is believed that he may in fact now be a prisoner of Ta Mok, the military commander of the Khmer Rouge. This illustrates the continuing splits and power struggles within the upper ranks of the Khmer Rouge.
Along with denying rumors of Khieu Samphan's death, the Thai government also categorically denied that he was operating from Thai soil, or that any part of his organization receives Thai support. The only remaining Khmer Rouge in Thailand are in refugee camps on the border, and those, though administered by the Thai military, are supported by the UN. Thailand is making it clear that it, too, will cooperate with the UN probe and that it does not support Khmer Rouge rebel leaders in its territories.
One of the biggest factors contributing to the growing insignificance of the Khmer Rouge is the possible reintegration of Royalist troops under Nhoek Bunchhai with the CRAF. Nhoek had said before that there was no way he would return to Phnom Penh as long as Hun Sen was still in power, for fear of his life. However, with the recent coalition government formed between Prince Ranariddh's FUNCINPEC party and Hun Sen's Cambodian Peoples Party (CPP), with a minor role to be played by the Sam Rainsey party, Nhoek and other commanders loyal to the prince received pardons and assurances of their safety. Another agreement in the formation of the coalition was that the armed forces should be reunified.
Following the joint statement on the creation of a coalition, Nhoek said he was ready to integrate his troops with CRAF. This is a major turnaround for a man who just a few weeks ago was unwilling to return to the capital until Hun Sen was gone. Two factors that played an important role in his reversal of position are the promise of full reintegration by the new coalition, and the upcoming ASEAN summit at which the issue of Cambodian entry into ASEAN will be decided. If there was ever a time for Nhoek to act, it is now, when Hun Sen must keep his country politically stable. The major condition for Cambodian entry into ASEAN is a stable government, and Hun Sen cannot allow Nhoek to be killed (a fear Nhoek has expressed) and still maintain his new coalition with Prince Ranariddh.
If Nhoek leads his troops back into the CRAF, it puts a major strain on the Khmer Rouge. The breakaway Royalist troops have been operating with Khmer Rouge rebels and know many of their locations and strongholds. Hun Sen has set several conditions for a return to the military, however, including that commanders must show they are not connected to Ta Mok and the Khmer Rouge. Although Nhoek is assured of a pardon, he is not certain of returning to his former post. In this way, Hun Sen is assuring that the reintegrated army is led by CRAF commanders he can choose. The re-combined CRAF, with the new intelligence on Khmer Rouge positions, would be able to launch a concerted attack and may finally drive the group into oblivion.
Hun Sen has three desires right now, to remain in power, to see Cambodia enter ASEAN, and to see the end of the Khmer Rouge. To achieve these ends, he has compromised with Prince Ranariddh, is helping to reintegrate Royalist troops into the military, and has offered assistance to the UN investigators. This creates a window of opportunity, until the ASEAN meeting, for Nhoek and his troops to reenter safely. It also gives the UN a prime opportunity to conduct its investigations of the Khmer Rouge. Overall, however, it spells another major low point for the Khmer Rouge, which is losing its last shreds of support. Though the Khmer Rouge has been around for decades, its demise may now be in sight. It is already a weakened organization, and may soon end up as just another minor rebel group in the jungles of Southeast Asia.
The UN has moved closer to opening an international tribunal into crimes against humanity by the Khmer Rouge, with backing from Cambodian Premier Hun Sen and Thailand. This international pressure on the rebels would be unenforceable and thus meaningless, but for recent events that suggest the Khmer Rouge may be weakening militarily as well. There have been rumors of the death of Khmer Rouge leader Khieu Samphan, though these have been quickly denied by both the Thai and Cambodian governments. Additionally, moves are under way to reintegrate breakaway Royalist troops into the Cambodian Royal Armed Forces (CRAF). With the December ASEAN summit scheduled to decide on Cambodia's entry into the association, Hun Sen is moving very cautiously to keep order, making this the one time certain breakaway military supporters of Prince Ranariddh may be able to safely leave the field. All of this points to a renewed CRAF, with new intelligence on Khmer Rouge locations and weaknesses delivered by the Royalist troops who were recently fighting side by side with the rebels. Altogether, the up-and-down fortunes of the Khmer Rouge look once again to be heading down.
Analysis
Recent events in Cambodia suggest that the up-and-down fortunes of the Khmer Rouge may once again be heading down. A United Nations team has arrived to investigate Khmer Rouge actions and prepare for a possible international tribunal to bring the remaining leaders to justice, with Premier Hun Sen offering full cooperation in the investigations. The UN investigating team is also planning to ask Thailand to cooperate and not shield Khmer Rouge leaders. At the same time, rumors of the death of rebel leader Khieu Samphan have spread, though they have been denied by the Cambodian and Thai governments. Finally, with agreement on a coalition government now in place, steps are under way to reintegrate breakaway Royalist troops loyal to Prince Norodom Ranariddh into the Cambodian Royal Armed Forces (CRAF), giving the CRAF access to extremely useful inside intelligence on Khmer Rouge bases and activities.
The history of the Khmer Rouge has been marked by a series of ups and downs, as allegiances were made and broken. A major split in the group between pro-Chinese and pro-Vietnamese factions resulted in the defection of then-Field Commander Hun Sen to Vietnam in 1977. The ensuing Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia succeeded in ousting the Khmer Rouge from power. The Khmer Rouge suffered another setback when former Deputy Prime Minister Ieng Sary defected to the government in 1996. When Hun Sen staged a coup against his co-Premier Prince Ranariddh in 1997, a large faction of the CRAF loyal to the prince broke off and joined with Khmer Rouge rebels in the northwest. The death of Pol Pot in April brought renewed international focus to the Khmer Rouge, and an effort was made to bring the remaining Khmer Rouge leaders to justice.
This past weekend, a UN team arrived in Phnom Penh to begin laying the groundwork for an international tribunal to try Khmer Rouge leaders for crimes against humanity covering the period 1975-79. Premier Hun Sen has announced his "full cooperation" to the tribunal, but has not yet laid out any conditions for his cooperation. Hun Sen is most interested in bringing the three remaining heads of the Khmer Rouge, Ta Mok, Nuon Chea, and Khieu Samphan, out of the jungles to once-and-for-all eradicate the rebel group. This would constitute a major victory for Hun Sen, who was instrumental in removing his former allies from power in 1979. The investigative team will also hold talks with Thailand and China regarding the possible formation of a tribunal. In Thailand, the team will ask for Thai assistance in capturing any fugitive heads of the Khmer Rouge in Thai territory as well as finding ways to prevent the flight of rebels through Thailand. The team will hold talks with the Chinese government to try and persuade China not to block UN actions to form the tribunal.
At the same time that the UN investigators were beginning operations in Cambodia, news of the death of Khmer Rouge leader Khieu Samphan was announced. Although this news was quickly denied by the Thai and Cambodian governments, and by former Khmer Rouge leaders, its timing does not bode well for the rebel group. Even if he is still alive, it is believed that he may in fact now be a prisoner of Ta Mok, the military commander of the Khmer Rouge. This illustrates the continuing splits and power struggles within the upper ranks of the Khmer Rouge.
Along with denying rumors of Khieu Samphan's death, the Thai government also categorically denied that he was operating from Thai soil, or that any part of his organization receives Thai support. The only remaining Khmer Rouge in Thailand are in refugee camps on the border, and those, though administered by the Thai military, are supported by the UN. Thailand is making it clear that it, too, will cooperate with the UN probe and that it does not support Khmer Rouge rebel leaders in its territories.
One of the biggest factors contributing to the growing insignificance of the Khmer Rouge is the possible reintegration of Royalist troops under Nhoek Bunchhai with the CRAF. Nhoek had said before that there was no way he would return to Phnom Penh as long as Hun Sen was still in power, for fear of his life. However, with the recent coalition government formed between Prince Ranariddh's FUNCINPEC party and Hun Sen's Cambodian Peoples Party (CPP), with a minor role to be played by the Sam Rainsey party, Nhoek and other commanders loyal to the prince received pardons and assurances of their safety. Another agreement in the formation of the coalition was that the armed forces should be reunified.
Following the joint statement on the creation of a coalition, Nhoek said he was ready to integrate his troops with CRAF. This is a major turnaround for a man who just a few weeks ago was unwilling to return to the capital until Hun Sen was gone. Two factors that played an important role in his reversal of position are the promise of full reintegration by the new coalition, and the upcoming ASEAN summit at which the issue of Cambodian entry into ASEAN will be decided. If there was ever a time for Nhoek to act, it is now, when Hun Sen must keep his country politically stable. The major condition for Cambodian entry into ASEAN is a stable government, and Hun Sen cannot allow Nhoek to be killed (a fear Nhoek has expressed) and still maintain his new coalition with Prince Ranariddh.
If Nhoek leads his troops back into the CRAF, it puts a major strain on the Khmer Rouge. The breakaway Royalist troops have been operating with Khmer Rouge rebels and know many of their locations and strongholds. Hun Sen has set several conditions for a return to the military, however, including that commanders must show they are not connected to Ta Mok and the Khmer Rouge. Although Nhoek is assured of a pardon, he is not certain of returning to his former post. In this way, Hun Sen is assuring that the reintegrated army is led by CRAF commanders he can choose. The re-combined CRAF, with the new intelligence on Khmer Rouge positions, would be able to launch a concerted attack and may finally drive the group into oblivion.
Hun Sen has three desires right now, to remain in power, to see Cambodia enter ASEAN, and to see the end of the Khmer Rouge. To achieve these ends, he has compromised with Prince Ranariddh, is helping to reintegrate Royalist troops into the military, and has offered assistance to the UN investigators. This creates a window of opportunity, until the ASEAN meeting, for Nhoek and his troops to reenter safely. It also gives the UN a prime opportunity to conduct its investigations of the Khmer Rouge. Overall, however, it spells another major low point for the Khmer Rouge, which is losing its last shreds of support. Though the Khmer Rouge has been around for decades, its demise may now be in sight. It is already a weakened organization, and may soon end up as just another minor rebel group in the jungles of Southeast Asia.
