Growing NATO Controversy in Ukraine
With reestablishment of a union between Belarus and Russia underway, the central question in the former Soviet Union is clearly the future of Ukraine. Ukrainian National Security Council President Volodymyr Horbulin has signaled the desire of at least one faction in the Ukraine—membership in NATO. NATO's Secretary General arrived today in Kiev for the opening of the NATO Information Center. Horbulin, in a letter to parliament, wrote that "Ukraine is such an important geopolitical factor in Central and Eastern Europe that one can only speak conditionally of its absolute neutral and nonaligned status." This can be translated as Ukraine not feeling under any obligation to remain outside of NATO and, in fact, being open to the possibility of membership.
The issue is coming to a head because NATO forces will be conducting an exercise in the Crimea shortly. The exercise, called Sea Breeze-97, will involve amphibious landings near Yevpatoriya. To say that the Russians are unhappy about this exercise doesn't begin to capture it. This is compounded by the nature of the scenario being enacted: a local civil war has broken out with one faction being supplied with weapons by a country in the region—clearly Russia. NATO's job is to restore order.
Factions inside both the Russian and Ukrainian parliament have condemned the exercise and have urged both NATO and Ukraine to call it off. Neither is likely to comply. This will further exacerbate tensions between the West and Russia. It will also give Russia reason to initiate the scenario envisioned by Sea Breeze-97. At the very least, Russian support for anti- NATO forces in Ukraine will undoubtedly rise, increasing tensions inside of Ukraine as well.
With reestablishment of a union between Belarus and Russia underway, the central question in the former Soviet Union is clearly the future of Ukraine. Ukrainian National Security Council President Volodymyr Horbulin has signaled the desire of at least one faction in the Ukraine—membership in NATO. NATO's Secretary General arrived today in Kiev for the opening of the NATO Information Center. Horbulin, in a letter to parliament, wrote that "Ukraine is such an important geopolitical factor in Central and Eastern Europe that one can only speak conditionally of its absolute neutral and nonaligned status." This can be translated as Ukraine not feeling under any obligation to remain outside of NATO and, in fact, being open to the possibility of membership.
The issue is coming to a head because NATO forces will be conducting an exercise in the Crimea shortly. The exercise, called Sea Breeze-97, will involve amphibious landings near Yevpatoriya. To say that the Russians are unhappy about this exercise doesn't begin to capture it. This is compounded by the nature of the scenario being enacted: a local civil war has broken out with one faction being supplied with weapons by a country in the region—clearly Russia. NATO's job is to restore order.
Factions inside both the Russian and Ukrainian parliament have condemned the exercise and have urged both NATO and Ukraine to call it off. Neither is likely to comply. This will further exacerbate tensions between the West and Russia. It will also give Russia reason to initiate the scenario envisioned by Sea Breeze-97. At the very least, Russian support for anti- NATO forces in Ukraine will undoubtedly rise, increasing tensions inside of Ukraine as well.
