The Chechen situation is once again slipping into chaos. For the last month and a half there have been a string of violent incidents on Russian territory, peaking over the last week with the bombings of the train stations in Armavir and Pyatigorsk and a monument in Nalchik. An unexploded bomb was also discovered at a Russian naval barracks in Kaspiysk. Russian police and an armed band from Chechnya clashed Tuesday at a Russian checkpoint in Dagestan, resulting in the closure of Chechen border crossing points by Russia. And yesterday, a local political official was assassinated in Ingushetia. Russian Interior Ministry troops are on high alert along the Chechen border.

Russian Interior Minister Anatoliy Kulikov condemned the acts as Chechen terrorism, and accused the Chechen leadership of inability to assert law and order over their territory. He announced that two Chechen women, veterans of the raid on Budennovsk, had been captured and were being charged with the Pyatigorsk attack. The Chechen government responded to Russian condemnation by declaring the acts provocations perpetrated by the Russian security forces. Chechen Vice President Vakha Arsanov specifically charged Kulikov, one of the chief architects of Russia's war with Chechnya, with responsibility for the plot.

This seems to confirm a story covered in the March 26 Red Alert, which reported Chechen warnings of late-April attacks on three Russian cities. At that time Arsanov had claimed that a Russian "Party of War," including members of Russia's security services, was planning the attacks in order to discredit the Chechen authorities and disrupt the peace process. The Russian authorities denied the allegation, calling it an act of propaganda intended to disrupt the peace process.

We do not know, nor do we wish to guess, who is truly responsible for these acts. Rancor between Russia and Chechnya runs deep. However regardless of responsibility, it appears that both sides are correct in claiming that these acts will destroy the peace process. This time, we think that the Russians will try to finish the job they started in Chechnya, in order to placate those who feel that Yeltsin has abandoned Russian nationalist principles. Imagine, if you will, an even more brutal Russian Chechnya policy than before. We think that this is where the situation is heading.