The United States on Tuesday condemned an Egyptian court's death sentence for 529 members of the Muslim Brotherhood, just the latest sign of strain on the U.S.-Egyptian relationship that for decades was the bedrock of regional stability. U.S. State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf called the verdict, handed down a day earlier, "outrageous, shocking, unconscionable" and warned Cairo that the manner in which it proceeded with the trials and the sentences would have a direct bearing on future U.S. aid to the world's most populous Arab state. The reaction from the United States occurred as the Arab League summit in Kuwait is being held under the shadow of a dispute between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, a dispute that to a great degree centers on Doha's support for the Brotherhood.

It is not clear if the controversial ruling was issued on direct orders from the highest levels of the Egyptian regime. However, Cairo wants to break the morale of the Brotherhood and force it to accept the coup that toppled the government of former Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi on July 3, 2013. These types of verdicts help the military regime, led by Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, increase pressure on the Islamist movement.

The Egyptian regime's goal of crushing the Brotherhood has created geopolitical waves in the region and beyond. Cairo's biggest international patron, the United States, has had an uneasy relationship with Egypt, to put it mildly, ever since the coup. Washington cannot simply conduct business as usual with Egypt so long as Cairo is seen as acting autocratically. While the deterioration in U.S.-Egyptian relations is a bilateral issue, the domestic strife involving the Brotherhood has created more far-reaching problems in the region.

What is a Geopolitical Diary? George Friedman explains.

The region's dominant power, Saudi Arabia, is engaged in an unprecedented spat with fellow Arab and Gulf Cooperation Council state Qatar over Doha's support for the Brotherhood. At a time when the region is in the throes of instability, the last thing the Arab states need is a dispute between the two major financial powers of the region. The Arab world has always been marred by quarrels, but this current dispute is different because it is about how to maintain stability in an age when unadulterated autocracy is becoming increasingly unsustainable.

Meanwhile, relations between the United States and Russia are at their lowest point since the end of the Cold War. After the reversal in Ukraine, Moscow is in the process of countering what is a major advance by the West into the Russian sphere of influence. The Russians see the Middle East as a place where they can return the favor and create problems for the Obama administration.

The ongoing Iranian nuclear talks are a lever that the Russians are trying to exploit by offering Tehran incentives that would make it feel less certain about the need to move toward a final agreement with Washington. The spat between the United States and Egypt is another issue that the Russians appear to be trying to exploit. Meetings are underway between Egyptian and Russian officials about establishing a free trade zone between Cairo and the countries of the Customs Union, which include Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

At the same time, Egypt's military chief has been trying to expedite the finalization of a $3 billion defense deal with Russia. The fate of both initiatives remains unclear, but getting closer to Russia is Cairo's way of trying to counter American pressure so it can do what it feels is necessary to deal with the problems at home involving the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Muslim Brotherhood is basis for the U.S.-Egyptian-Russian dynamic and the unprecedented deterioration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. That fact alone is a testament to the fears the Brotherhood inspires in the embattled establishment powers of the Middle East, even with the group at its lowest point in its 85-year history.

RANE
SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Expert analysis when it matters most.

Get access to RANE's decision-grade geopolitical intelligence.