Targeted Killings in Monterrey

On Jan. 25, gunmen in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state, killed 11 individuals, eight of whom were removed from their vehicles, lined up and executed on a street corner. Law enforcement responded by rounding up more than 200 individuals from Monterrey's La Eternidad bar. After interrogating the suspects, Mexican authorities presented to the media 10 suspected Los Zetas members who they said were behind the Jan. 25 killings.

The targeted killings in Monterrey did not stop, however. Since Jan. 25, at least 30 people have been executed in the city, and the Nuevo Leon government said the 75 homicides in Monterrey in January 2012 made that month the city's deadliest since August 2011, when approximately 100 people were killed, including more than 50 in an attack on the Casino Royale. This trend of targeted executions has continued into February, with the five individuals murdered Feb. 13 in the Valle de Santa Lucia neighborhood of Monterrey by a group of gunmen being only the most recent incident. 

Though the contents of most of the narcomantas left at the scenes of the assassinations have not been disclosed by law enforcement, the few that have been released suggest that Los Zetas have launched a campaign to kill associates of the Gulf cartel in Monterrey. Until their split in January 2010, the two groups had been allied, with Los Zetas serving as the enforcement arm for the Gulf cartel. After their falling out, Los Zetas seized control of Monterrey, although the Gulf cartel maintained a small foothold in the city. When the Gulf cartel fractured again in 2011, the organization was further weakened.

Los Zetas may be attempting to take advantage of this weakness and consolidate control over Monterrey by launching a new offensive. However, Stratfor has also received unconfirmed reports that the Gulf cartel and its current ally, the Sinaloa Federation, may be preparing their own offensive to retake Monterrey, which could mean the killings are intended to prevent a resurgence by the Gulf cartel.

Monterrey is one of Mexico's largest economic hubs; many of the country's largest corporations and multinational corporations operate there. Because Monterrey hosts so many large businesses, it is also an important city for organized criminal groups, which can conceal drugs in shipments of legal products to the United States or use the businesses to launder money.

In addition, several important highways pass through Monterrey, including Federal Highway 85, which runs from Mexico City to Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state, on the U.S.-Mexico border. Since Los Zetas control Nuevo Laredo, they see Federal Highway 85 and Monterrey as especially valuable. Indeed, Monterrey's location makes it a transportation gateway for goods heading to the U.S. market. That makes the city important both to legitimate businesses moving commercial goods to the United States and to criminal enterprises moving contraband.

Los Zetas may have detected a weakened Gulf cartel presence in this important city, prompting the apparent campaign of targeted killings. If this is the case and Los Zetas are able to consolidate their control over Monterrey, violence can be expected to taper off — cities under the firm control of a single criminal organization tend to experience less violence than cities where control is contested by two or more competitors.

However, if the reports of a looming Sinaloa-Gulf offensive to take Monterrey are accurate, Los Zetas may have initiated their assassination campaign to head off the potential threat. Los Zetas are well-entrenched in Monterrey, and it will be difficult for the Gulf cartel to unseat them.

The reason for the uptick in targeted killings remains unclear, but should these reports of a new Sinaloa-Gulf offensive prove true, violence in Monterrey can be expected to increase.

Feb. 7

• Three gunmen traveling in a vehicle shot and killed a man at a taco stand in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state.
• Unidentified gunmen shot and killed the Morelos district coordinator for the Municipal Police in Chihuahua, Chihuahua state.
• Gunmen simultaneously attacked two bars in southern Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state. Three individuals were killed and 12 wounded in the attacks. According to media outlets, members of criminal groups earlier had demanded that both bars sell drugs at their locations.
• Narcomantas were hung in various areas of Chihuahua city, Chihuahua state, referring to an attack in which nine individuals were killed.

Feb. 8

• Mexican authorities discovered 10 bodies in two unmarked graves in Acayucan, Veracruz state. The discovery came from information received from Juan Francisco "El Pollo H" Alvarado Martagon, a detained Los Zetas operator.

Feb. 9

• Victor "El Paletas" Alvarez Barragan, a boxer from Jalisco state, was arrested near the Miguel Hidalgo airport in Guadalajara, Jalisco state, by Jalisco state authorities.
• Gunmen clashed with authorities outside a bank in Monclova, Coahuila state. Authorities have not yet released any details on casualties or arrests.
• Two gunmen shot and killed three men in Chimalhuacan, Mexico State. Authorities later detained the gunmen.
• A woman was found executed in Colonia Arturo B in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state.
• Gunmen killed two men who were washing a vehicle in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state.
• Federal Police arrested eight members of La Barredora in Acapulco, Guerrero state. The arrests were the result of investigations stemming from arrests made in early January.

Feb. 10

• Mexican authorities discovered a man's body in a vacant lot in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state. The victim's hands and face were taped, and the body had sustained a gunshot to the head.
• Federal Police detained Jonathan "El Jona" Martinez Santos, the No. 2 leader of La Barredora, in Acapulco, Guerrero state. Martinez reportedly was responsible for murdering a schoolteacher and for dictating narcomantas that threatened rival groups in Acapulco.
• A man was shot and killed before being hung from a footbridge in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state.
• A municipal police commander in Alamo, Veracruz state, was detained for his involvement in the Feb. 3 attack on Miguel Angel Yunes Marquez, a state program coordinator in Veracruz state. Yunes and his brother were traveling in an armored vehicle when gunmen ambushed them, but neither was hurt in the attack.
• Gunmen shot and killed two men on a street in southern Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state. Found near the scene was a narcomanta, which contained threatening comments toward Gulf cartel members.

Feb. 11

• Authorities from the State Investigative Agency in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state, discovered the body of a woman who had been shot in the back several times. According to witnesses, the woman was walking down a street when gunmen traveling in a vehicle opened fire on her.
• Gunmen killed a security guard at a store in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state.
• Authorities discovered the decapitated body of a taxi driver in the trunk of a vehicle in Acapulco, Guerrero state. The victim's hands and feet also were bound.

Feb. 12

• Mexican authorities discovered seven bodies in an abandoned truck in Torreon, Coahuila state.

Feb. 13

• Gunmen killed five individuals in Valle de Santa Lucia, a neighborhood in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state. The assailants shot three men at a residence, and then walked five blocks to another residence, where they shot two more individuals.
• One soldier and three gunmen were killed in a firefight between the Mexican military and members of a criminal group in Anahuac, Nuevo Leon state. Two gunmen were detained and a kidnapping victim was rescued.
• Gunmen killed two individuals, including a restaurant owner, in Isla de la Piedra in Mazatlan, Sinaloa state.

Feb. 14

• Federal police presented the arrest of Jaime "El Viejito" Herrera Herrera, a methamphetamine producer for the Sinaloa cartel in Culiacan, Sinaloa states.