Miranda state Gov. Henrique Capriles Radonski won Venezuela's opposition primary election Feb. 12, garnering nearly 64 percent of the vote. His closest competitor, Zulia state Gov. Pablo Perez, took only 31 percent of the vote. With 2.9 million votes cast, voter turnout exceeded the opposition's expectations, and Capriles will now go on to challenge Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in the Oct. 7 presidential election.
Though Capriles' candidacy represents the Venezuelan opposition's strongest effort against Chavez since he came to power in 1999, the president remains popular and has the advantage going into the election. The outcome ultimately will be decided by the state of the Venezuelan economy and the uncertain status of Chavez's health.
Chavez rode to power in 1999 on a wave of popular dissatisfaction with the political and economic malaise that afflicted Venezuela in the 1980s and 1990s. Distinct from the political elite of the Social Christian Party of Venezuela and Accion Democratica, which had traded power in Venezuela for decades, Chavez challenged the old power system. Indeed, when Chavez first drew public attention in 1992, it was as a young lieutenant surrendering his forces after a failed coup. More than a decade later, after successfully building a new power structure in the country, Chavez sits at its apex. Much like former Argentine President Juan Peron's political movement, the key to Chavez's power has been in the consolidation of Venezuela's poor and working classes into a powerful voting block. And like Argentina after Peron, it is safe to say that Venezuelan politics after Chavez will never be quite the same.
It should come as no surprise, then, that the most convincing opposition candidate to emerge thus far has built his campaign not around a right-of-center free market ideology, but instead around a kind of moderate populism that emphasizes the ideas of fairer income distribution and access to basic goods. Capriles has crafted an image that he hopes will position him as the next logical step in Venezuela’s leftist political direction, while also portraying himself as the business-friendly, stability-inclined candidate. Capriles has promised to honor contracts signed by the Chavez government — including subsidized oil shipments to Cuba and oil agreements with China — but has simultaneously indicated that he will be more welcoming to U.S. companies and less likely to make new contracts with politically controversial allies like Iran and even China. In his emphasis on continuity, Capriles has signaled to Venezuela's economic and political elite that he is willing to make whatever deals necessary to ensure a smooth transition from the Chavez government. This surely includes private assurances to Venezuela's military, on whom Capriles is counting to uphold the election if Capriles wins by an undisputable margin.
The most notable aspect of Capriles' win was the immediate and unequivocal support from his former rivals. Until this election cycle, the opposition had typically been fractured. Their ability to unite at this point is driven by rising discontent in Venezuela, the state of the economy and the increasing difficulties Venezuelans face on a daily basis. These issues include electricity failures, problems in labor negotiations, food shortages and rising inflation — all challenges that will dominate the election season and Capriles is sure to make part of his presidential campaign.
The government's strategy will be to capitalize on its access to the country's significant oil wealth to win votes through direct transfers of cash and goods to voters. It will also put additional pressure on private businesses to control prices of consumer goods in an effort to combat inflation. The government is currently implementing the first stage of this process through the Law of Fair Costs and Prices, which is creating tensions between a number of companies and the Chavez government. In the cases where this pressure on companies fails, the government will use its cash reserves to import and subsidize goods for the domestic market — a strategy that will strain government finances despite significant reserves of cash and gold.
The least predictable element in this election is the status of Chavez's health. Despite Chavez's protestations of good health, numerous leaked reports have stated that he is quite ill and that his latest energetic public appearances are misleading. If he is as ill as the leaked reports indicate, his health may visibly deteriorate during the election cycle, giving Capriles a significant advantage and fueling rumors about whether Chavez will have to choose a successor from among his ideological supporters. However, if he is healthy, or at least manages to maintain the appearance of health for the remainder of the campaign, Chavez's persisting popularity will make him a tough candidate to beat.
