U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates met with Chinese President Hu Jintao on the second day of his trip to China. Gates' trip has served as a public display of renewed military communication between the two countries, as well as a forerunner to Hu's highly anticipated trip to Washington from Jan. 18-21. The meeting received heightened attention because in recent days the Chinese have revealed a new piece of advanced weaponry. Pictures have flowed out of cyberspace of what appears to be the first test flight of a fifth-generation combat fighter prototype, the so-called Chengdu J-20, which has some outward appearances of stealth shaping and characteristics. The prototype appeared in public for the first time more than two weeks ago on a tarmac at the Chengdu Wenjiang airbase near where it is being developed, and has stirred up much discussion since. Tellingly, Gates said on the way to Beijing that the jet revealed that China's military progress has unfolded more rapidly than the U.S. intelligence community had estimated. Reportedly, Gates asked Hu why the test was conducted during his visit, and Hu told Gates that the test had been previously planned and was merely coincidental — which is hard to believe. But what is harder to believe is the story promulgated by the press, citing an unnamed American official as saying that Hu and the other civilian leaders in the room seemed genuinely surprised, as if they had no knowledge of the flight test. This anecdote has been widely reported as another example of the rising prominence of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), whose leaders are presumed to have planned and held the flight test on the occasion of Gates' visit without Hu's prior knowledge — a brazen act of insubordination. When asked about a leadership rift, Gates acknowledged that he has been worried for some time about such a problem. China's undeniable advances in the military sphere, as in other spheres, have prompted the United States to begin holding it to higher standards, which may not be what Beijing wants. There is support for the theory that a crack is opening between China's military and civilian leaders. Rumors from within China have long told of high-ranking officers growing assertive in the political sphere, and even of a weak Hu who is scorned by soldiers because, like many of the Communist Party's leaders on the Politburo Standing Committee, he has no military experience. Chinese state media in recent years have shown a higher frequency of top military officials making strident statements or penning editorials with bold claims, which presumably find approval in an increasingly nationalistic audience. The PLA is suspected of seizing a greater role in Chinese policy making, and this trend will probably increase when the new generation of leaders, almost entirely lacking in military experience, takes power in 2012. China's growing irritability over territorial disputes and its brazen abetting of North Korea's belligerent acts, have caught the attention of its neighbors and the United States. But the J-20 has been in the news for weeks, frequently with the explicit prediction that it would take a test flight in the near future. Satellites and newspapers were glued to the Chengdu airbase waiting for the bird to fly. Under these circumstances, it is extremely difficult to believe that Hu, not only China's president but also its chief military official, was shrouded in a cloud of unknowing. If the rumors are true, and the military was acting independently, to the embarrassment of China's highest leader, then the internal instability in China is far worse than even STRATFOR has suspected, and the world should prepare for some very unsettling events as that power struggle plays out. The obvious is more likely: China probably unveiled the advanced fighter during Gates' visit to emphasize that it is a force to be reckoned with. Beijing may have sent the message as if to say it is perfectly happy to restart military-to-military talks, and even to show more "transparency" about its military power, but it expects not to be condescended to or treated as a small player. Beijing has repeated incessantly the demand for talks to be held on equal footing, with Chinese interests given the same weight as American interests. At the same time, the Americans may have an interest in playing up the signs of a rift, or the Chinese themselves could be purposely giving that appearance. China may want its demands to receive the same degree of care that the United States has given Russia's demands. And Washington may be willing to do that — part of Gates' mission was pitching a new track of dialogue on strategic security issues, like nuclear weapons and policy, cyberwarfare, missile defense and space weaponization, a track which the Chinese have said they will consider. But China may also hesitate. Chinese and American power are not on an equal footing. The United States remains the world's overwhelming military power; China lags behind other military powers. China's undeniable advances in the military sphere, as in other spheres, have prompted the United States to begin holding it to higher standards, which may not be what Beijing wants.
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