Thailand is set to host a 10-nation conference to discuss Myanmar's proposed "road map" for democratic reform. The multilateral meeting — part of an effort by Yangon to rehabilitate its international standing — has been in the works since Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra met with his Myanmarese counterpart, Gen. Khin Nyunt, in early November. Myanmar's willingness to engage in an international forum reveals Khin Nyunt's strong desire to work past the longstanding political impasse in the country and appease fellow ASEAN members and international investors. Thaksin told reporters that the purpose of the meeting was to discuss possible solutions for Myanmar and to hear Myanmar's ideas about political reform in the country. Thailand's The Nation newspaper reported Dec. 4 that Austria, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore have been invited to send representatives to the meeting, which is scheduled for Dec. 15. The United Nations' special envoy to Myanmar, Razali Ismail, will be invited as well. Yangon is expected to dispatch Foreign Minister Win Aung to brief the forum. After becoming the apparent top leader of Myanmar's opaque ruling junta following a Cabinet shuffle in August, Khin Nyunt has set forth on a campaign to rehabilitate the pariah state. Immediately after coming to power, Khin Nyunt said Myanmar had formulated a "road map to democracy," which includes "free and fair" elections and writing a new constitution. The announcement signals that Yangon is prepared to defuse the situation revolving around the detention of Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Myanmar's opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) Party. In the past several weeks, dozens of NLD members have been released from house arrest and the government says it has restarted talks with the opposition leader. Yangon's adjusted position follows months of heightened international pressure including additional sanctions from the United States, Europe and Japan, intense lobbying by fellow ASEAN members and the withdrawal of a number of large multinational corporations from the country. This international coercion and the pain it caused is believed to have propelled Khin Nyunt to power and to have spurred the policy changes. It is unclear as yet how far the prime minister is willing to go with the "road map," how tightly he controls the junta or whether it will follow him. At the very least, Khin Nyunt would like to implement a handful of cosmetic changes to Myanmar's political system in hopes that it will appease its critics — especially neighboring Thailand and other ASEAN members with which it is building stronger economic ties. That is not likely to impress the regime's harshest critics, however. The United States and Britain were not mentioned as nations that will send representatives to the multilateral meeting — although we assume they were invited. However, the Thai Foreign Ministry said it expects to make an official announcement after it receives responses from all of the potential attendees, so there is still an opportunity for either nation to attend. Britain is not likely to relax its pressure on Myanmar anytime soon — most of the nongovernmental agencies lobbying for sanctions against Myanmar are based in London, and major British corporations such as BAT and BP have left the country, replaced by Asian firms. The United States, on the other hand, might be induced to gradually soften its stance if Yangon gives Washington something substantial to work with. Not only would large U.S. companies like to do business there, but U.S. ally Thailand likely is petitioning Washington to lift sanctions against its neighbor because political and economic stability in the country will help Thailand's own security. Although it remains to be seen whether Khin Nyunt's future political reforms will carry any weight anywhere, much less in Washington, Yangon is making an effort, and Bangkok's support could buy it some goodwill.
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